Saturday Update: Disney reports this morning that Aladdin is exceeding pre-weekend expectations and coming closer to previously optimistic forecasts as it bowed to a strong $31 million domestically on Friday, including Thursday night’s $7 million start.
That’s just 12 percent less than Solo‘s $35.4 million first day one year ago on Memorial Weekend, while coming in 31.5 percent ahead of Pirates 5‘s $23.6 million start two years ago. Aladdin had been tracking closest to the latter comp in recent weeks, although the holiday opening and skewing fan bases never seem to have made for a true apples-to-apples comparison.
Among Disney’s recent live action remakes, Aladdin‘s first day compares well to The Jungle Book ($32.0 million). After that, only Beauty and the Beast ($63.8 million) and Alice In Wonderland ($40.8 million) had higher first day earnings.
Weekend projections remain in flux due to the aforementioned holiday weekend and Disney fan base factors, but we’re now estimating a three-day opening around $84 million and a four-day frame around $104 million for Aladdin. Worth noting is that these figures would represent the second highest opening of star Will Smith’s career (trailing only Suicide Squad‘s $133.7 million August 2016 debut), while also delivering a career best for director Guy Ritchie (topping Sherlock Holmes‘ $62.3 million weekend in December 2009).
John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum took second on Friday with another $6.6 million, giving it a strong $83.2 million in just eight days of domestic play. We’re projecting a $23.6 million / $29.8 million three-day / four-day split.
Marvel’s Avengers: Endgame finally showed signs of stabilizing with $4.225 million earned yesterday, off just 43 percent from last Friday despite losing more IMAX screens to fellow Disney release Aladdin. The MCU epic now stands at $785.6 million domestically through 29 days of release and, on Memorial Day Monday, is set to become only the second film in history to surpass the $800 million benchmark. Weekend estimates stand at $17.2 million / $22.2 million.
Detective Pikachu claimed fourth place with $3.5 million, now standing at $106.3 million through 15 days. Projections for the holiday frame are at $13 million / $17.1 million.
Brightburn capped off the top five with a $3.025 million first day of release, although it will likely be surpassed by fellow opener Booksmart once full weekend results are in. That pic earned $2.5 million on opening day. Both films are counter-programming the bigger releases in the market in fair fashion. Brightburn could land around $6.8 million / $8.0 million this weekend, while Booksmart has a shot at $7.4 million / $9.0 million.
Top 10 (4-Day Estimates)
- Aladdin ($104 million)
- John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum ($29.8 million)
- Avengers: Endgame ($22.2 million)
- Detective Pikachu ($17.1 million)
- Booksmart ($9.0 million)
- Brightburn ($8.0 million)
- A Dog’s Journey ($5.8 million)
- The Hustle ($4.9 million)
- The Intruder ($3.0 million)
- Long Shot ($2.1 million)
3-Day Domestic Estimates
| # | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aladdin | $84,000,000 | — | 4,476 | — | $18,767 | $84,000,000 | 1 | Disney |
| 2 | John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum | $23,600,000 | -58% | 3,850 | 0 | $6,130 | $100,238,941 | 2 | Lionsgate |
| 3 | Avengers: Endgame | $17,200,000 | -43% | 3,810 | -410 | $4,514 | $798,531,736 | 5 | Disney |
| 4 | POKÉMON Detective Pikachu | $13,000,000 | -48% | 3,824 | -424 | $3,400 | $115,822,622 | 3 | Warner Bros. |
| 5 | Booksmart | $7,400,000 | — | 2,505 | — | $2,954 | $7,400,000 | 1 | United Artists Releasing |
| 6 | Brightburn | $6,800,000 | — | 2,607 | — | $2,608 | $6,800,000 | 1 | Sony Pictures |
| 7 | A Dog’s Journey | $4,200,000 | -48% | 3,279 | 12 | $1,281 | $15,030,535 | 2 | Universal Pictures |
| 8 | The Hustle | $3,800,000 | -38% | 2,377 | -700 | $1,599 | $29,824,969 | 3 | United Artists Releasing |
| 9 | The Intruder | $2,300,000 | -43% | 1,612 | -619 | $1,427 | $31,965,541 | 4 | Sony / Screen Gems |
| 10 | Long Shot | $1,600,000 | -52% | 1,354 | -756 | $1,182 | $28,728,097 | 4 | Lionsgate |
| 11 | The Sun Is Also A Star | $745,000 | -70% | 2,073 | 0 | $359 | $4,231,824 | 2 | Warner Bros. |
| 12 | UglyDolls | $560,000 | -69% | 1,090 | -940 | $514 | $18,780,142 | 4 | STX Entertainment |
| # | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dumbo | $1,100,000 | 256% | 346 | -69 | $3,179 | $112,755,413 | 9 | Walt Disney Pictures |
| 2 | Poms | $670,000 | -69% | 911 | -1839 | $735 | $12,383,111 | 3 | STX Entertainment |
| 3 | Breakthrough | $440,000 | -59% | 551 | -824 | $799 | $39,908,247 | 6 | 20th Century Fox |
| 4 | The Curse of La Llorona | $420,000 | -53% | 359 | -292 | $1,170 | $53,769,225 | 6 | Warner Bros. / New Line |
| 5 | Captain Marvel | $380,000 | -48% | 300 | -426 | $1,267 | $425,802,352 | 12 | Disney |
| 6 | Shazam! | $285,000 | -57% | 283 | -253 | $1,007 | $138,520,556 | 8 | Warner Bros. |
| 7 | Tolkien | $162,000 | -78% | 189 | -1312 | $857 | $4,354,650 | 3 | Fox Searchlight |
| 8 | Little (2019) | $155,000 | -45% | 183 | -131 | $847 | $40,461,710 | 7 | Universal Pictures |
| 9 | How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World | $110,000 | -30% | 157 | -20 | $701 | $160,516,630 | 17 | Universal / DreamWorks Animation |
| 10 | India’s Most Wanted | $100,000 | — | 110 | — | $909 | $100,000 | 1 | FIP |
| 11 | Pet Sematary | $87,000 | -50% | 133 | -93 | $654 | $54,683,905 | 8 | Paramount Pictures |
| # | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penguins | $120,000 | 62% | 60 | -55 | $2,000 | $7,524,417 | 6 | Disney / Disneynature |
| 2 | Five Feet Apart | $27,000 | -53% | 75 | -41 | $360 | $45,705,251 | 11 | CBS Films |
Friday Report: Disney’s live action remake of Aladdin kicked off the long holiday weekend with an estimated $7 million debut last night, including 5pm fan events and general previews that began at 6pm. The most direct comparison — given the holiday frame — is Pirates of the Caribbean 5‘s $5.5 million Thursday night start two years ago as it kicked off Memorial Weekend.
Among other Disney properties, Aladdin landed in between The Jungle Book ($4.2 million) and Beauty and the Beast ($16.3 million).
Read more about the weekend ahead in our forecast here.
Also opening this weekend, Brightburn scored a reported $950K from 2,257 locations for Sony / Screen Gems. Very few R-rated genre films have opened over this holiday frame in recent years, but the closest comp looks to be the 2015 Poltergeist remake ($1.4 million).
Meanwhile, Booksmart reportedly took in $875K from screenings last night as it looks to leverage strong reviews into a healthy holiday debut.
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