Monday Update: Disney’s animated sequel Toy Story 4 started with $120.9M this weekend, a good debut but below both pre-release expectations and several other recent Pixar sequels.
It began -10.4% below Finding Dory, -33.8% behind Incredibles 2, and -4.1% behind the inflation-adjusted opening of 2010’s Toy Story 3. (Although it opened higher than Toy Story 3 in pure dollars.)
Our full table of weekend actuals is below.
Comparisons
Total box office this weekend was $203.6M.
That’s +49.9% above last weekend but -26.6% below this same weekend last year, when Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom led with $148.0M.
Year-to-date box office stands at $5.35B. That’s -8.9% behind this same date last year, down from -6.9% after last weekend.
Some analysts still predict 2019’s box office will ultimately beat 2018’s, on the strength of a strong upcoming slate of anticipated blockbusters, including The Lion King, Frozen II, and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.
Sunday Update: Disney’s current studio weekend estimate for Pixar’s Toy Story 4 is $118.0M. Our full table of Sunday’s studio weekend estimate is at bottom.
Saturday Update: Disney updates this morning with an official Friday estimate of $47.39 million for Pixar’s Toy Story 4, delivering the studio’s third highest opening day in their quarter-century history. This is a very positive start in relative terms for the sequel as strong word of mouth and brand recognition will drive business in the days and weeks ahead — particularly given the lack of animated competition in the near future.
Boxoffice is currently projecting an opening weekend between $115 million and $125 million.
However, the elephant in the room here is the fact that this marks a third consecutive weekend where a top-line new release has under-performed by no small margin (four weekends for those who may want to include May 31’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters). Unlike the past month, though, Toy Story 4 was expected to break the trend thanks not only to its franchise goodwill but incredibly strong reviews and evidence that this would be one June sequel for audiences to largely enjoy.
While that remains true (the film stands at 98 percent on Rotten Tomatoes and 96 percent on the site’s audience rating), this box office performance again underlines the enormous uphill battle franchises face after apparently concluding their stories — something we outlined in our original long range forecast and final pre-weekend analysis, the former of which preceded a dramatic increase in industry forecasts due to bullish tracking and pre-sales reports.
The important takeaway here is that this isn’t an indictment on Toy Story 4 — aside from the fact that Disney may have missed an opportunity by not releasing it on Father’s Day weekend, ala their past four summer films dating back to 2015’s Inside Out. Instead, it’s a reminder that data and tracking will only inform forecasts to a certain level of reliability. Going to the movies is ultimately a psychological choice for the majority of moviegoers that’s exceedingly challenging to measure when no two films are entirely equal.
The blunt possibility this industry must face right now is that if one subscribes to the idea of success breeding success (good movies inspire audiences to go to the cinema more often), then it is also true that failure breeds failure. In other words, perhaps a string of bad sequels makes people increasingly suspicious about the next one, regardless of its own quality and merits.
No, Toy Story 4 is not a failure. Far from it, in fact. It will go on to a leggy domestic and global run. The summer box office is starting to feel the pressure of lofty expectations, though. While early June was a mere appetizer (albeit, one that fell below even conservative expectations) for the rest of a presumed strong summer slate, the season is now in a position where the heart of the slate will need to perform at or near optimistic forecasts over the next six to eight weeks in order to keep not just a potential record summer alive, but the hopes of 2019 to chase down last year’s $11.9 billion domestic record.
On that latter topic, those hopes are now increasingly more reliant upon the second half of the year than they already were a few months ago. Year-to-date sales are down 8 percent versus this time last year (despite several heavy hitters so far), but there’s still time to right the ship. It’s achievable with the slate of blockbusters ahead between now and Christmas, including the likes of Toy Story 4 itself, Spider-Man: Far From Home, The Lion King, Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood, Hobbs & Shaw, It: Chapter 2, Joker, Frozen II, Jumanji 3, and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.
The onus, though, is arguably on studios to deliver quality product at a more consistent rate going forward. Franchise fatigue is real, but it isn’t fatigue from the mere existence of sequels — just the existence of *bad* ones.
Monday’s Weekend Actuals (Domestic)
FRI, JUN. 21 – SUN, JUN. 23
# | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Toy Story 4 | $120,908,065 | — | 4,575 | — | $26,428 | $120,908,065 | 1 | Disney |
2 | Child’s Play | $14,094,594 | — | 3,007 | — | $4,687 | $14,094,594 | 1 | United Artists Releasing |
3 | Aladdin | $13,244,015 | -23% | 3,435 | -121 | $3,856 | $288,554,143 | 5 | Disney |
4 | Men in Black: International | $10,701,557 | -64% | 4,224 | 0 | $2,534 | $52,641,211 | 2 | Sony / Columbia |
5 | The Secret Life of Pets 2 | $10,270,955 | -58% | 3,804 | -760 | $2,700 | $117,564,490 | 3 | Universal |
6 | Rocketman | $5,605,936 | -40% | 2,414 | -607 | $2,322 | $77,284,325 | 4 | Paramount Pictures |
7 | John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum | $4,085,828 | -36% | 1,607 | -426 | $2,543 | $156,078,252 | 6 | Lionsgate |
8 | Godzilla: King of the Monsters | $3,855,801 | -56% | 2,368 | -839 | $1,628 | $102,501,438 | 4 | Warner Bros. |
9 | Anna | $3,600,647 | — | 2,114 | — | $1,703 | $3,600,647 | 1 | Lionsgate / Summit |
10 | Dark Phoenix | $3,532,525 | -62% | 2,054 | -1667 | $1,720 | $60,091,836 | 3 | Fox |
11 | Shaft | $3,517,443 | -60% | 2,952 | 0 | $1,192 | $15,903,837 | 2 | Warner Bros. |
12 | Late Night | $2,552,444 | -51% | 2,172 | -48 | $1,175 | $10,641,423 | 3 | Amazon Studios |
# | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Avengers: Endgame | $1,987,849 | -47% | 985 | -465 | $2,018 | $834,596,815 | 9 | Disney |
2 | The Dead Don’t Die | $1,163,715 | -54% | 690 | 77 | $1,687 | $4,791,630 | 2 | Focus Features |
3 | Ma (2019) | $1,149,475 | -69% | 862 | -932 | $1,333 | $43,699,240 | 4 | Universal Pictures |
4 | Booksmart | $425,413 | -51% | 227 | -350 | $1,874 | $20,731,475 | 5 | United Artists Releasing |
5 | Pavarotti | $409,000 | 85% | 135 | 87 | $3,030 | $992,088 | 3 | CBS Films |
6 | POKÉMON Detective Pikachu | $370,212 | -71% | 366 | -618 | $1,012 | $142,030,694 | 7 | Warner Bros. |
7 | The Biggest Little Farm | $164,279 | -27% | 134 | -42 | $1,226 | $328,558 | 7 | Neon |
8 | Dumbo | $119,146 | -17% | 140 | -10 | $851 | $114,264,803 | 13 | Walt Disney Pictures |
9 | Shazam! | $117,374 | -13% | 145 | -15 | $809 | $139,961,290 | 12 | Warner Bros. |
10 | A Dog’s Journey | $109,180 | -76% | 171 | -139 | $638 | $22,101,130 | 6 | Universal Pictures |
11 | The Hustle | $96,771 | -42% | 115 | -127 | $841 | $35,106,311 | 7 | United Artists Releasing |
12 | Captain Marvel | $61,074 | -45% | 145 | -16 | $421 | $426,750,604 | 16 | Disney |
13 | UglyDolls | $43,998 | -29% | 105 | -34 | $419 | $20,062,588 | 8 | STX Entertainment |
# | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | The Last Black Man in San Francisco | $410,444 | 8% | 72 | 36 | $5,701 | $1,339,432 | 3 | A24 |
2 | Echo In the Canyon | $252,072 | 22% | 81 | 13 | $3,112 | $1,169,296 | 5 | Greenwich Entertainment |
3 | Brightburn | $100,269 | -60% | 95 | -212 | $1,055 | $17,259,427 | 5 | Sony Pictures |
4 | The Intruder | $68,793 | -54% | 70 | -64 | $983 | $35,388,976 | 8 | Sony / Screen Gems |
5 | Wild Rose | $52,938 | — | 4 | — | $13,235 | $52,938 | 1 | Neon |
6 | The Curse of La Llorona | $52,831 | -26% | 61 | -21 | $866 | $54,658,393 | 10 | Warner Bros. / New Line |
7 | The Spy Behind Home Plate | $50,150 | 93% | 31 | 6 | $1,618 | $191,456 | 5 | The Ciesla Foundation |
8 | Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am | $48,050 | — | 4 | — | $12,013 | $48,050 | 1 | Magnolia Pictures |
9 | All Is True | $46,813 | -47% | 77 | -113 | $608 | $1,075,681 | 7 | Sony Pictures Classics |
10 | Breakthrough | $38,535 | -40% | 72 | -35 | $535 | $40,652,899 | 10 | 20th Century Fox |
11 | The Souvenir | $31,972 | -43% | 50 | -33 | $639 | $907,232 | 6 | A24 |
12 | Framing John Delorean | $27,172 | 20% | 26 | 15 | $1,045 | $78,788 | 3 | IFC Films |
13 | Non-Fiction | $25,071 | 3% | 33 | -9 | $760 | $653,921 | 8 | IFC Films |
14 | Apollo 11 | $24,213 | 75% | 5 | 0 | $4,843 | $8,858,805 | 17 | Neon |
15 | American Woman | $20,469 | -81% | 38 | -79 | $539 | $203,876 | 2 | Roadside Attractions / Vertical Entertainment |
16 | Chasing the Dragon 2: Wild Wild Bunch | $13,896 | — | 3 | — | $4,632 | $154,476 | 3 | Well Go USA |
17 | Amazing Grace | $12,558 | -24% | 27 | 0 | $465 | $4,378,426 | 12 | Neon |
18 | The White Crow | $11,393 | -53% | 16 | -18 | $712 | $1,740,284 | 9 | Sony Pictures Classics |
19 | Paris Is Burning (2019 re-issue) | $10,629 | -2% | 2 | 1 | $5,315 | $35,139 | 2 | Janus Films |
20 | The Quiet One | $10,561 | — | 6 | — | $1,760 | $10,561 | 1 | IFC Films IFC Films |
21 | Dogman | $9,483 | 790% | 8 | -2 | $1,185 | $111,018 | 11 | Magnolia PicturesMagnolia Pictures |
22 | The Gangster, The Cop, The Devil | $9,180 | — | 5 | — | $1,836 | $197,848 | 3 | Well Go USA Entertainment |
23 | The Fall of The American Empire | $8,535 | 77% | 10 | 2 | $854 | $2,797,765 | 52 | Sony Pictures Classics |
24 | Woodstock: Three Days That Defined a Generation | $7,435 | -19% | 7 | -2 | $1,062 | $72,129 | 5 | PBS Distribution |
25 | The Reports on Sarah and Saleem | $7,332 | -27% | 3 | -1 | $2,444 | $23,868 | 2 | Dada Films |
26 | Killer Unicorn | $6,980 | -55% | 4 | -1 | $1,745 | $24,210 | 2 | Indican Pictures |
27 | In the Aisles | $5,963 | 547% | 4 | 3 | $1,491 | $7,626 | 2 | Music Box Films |
28 | Long Day’s Journey Into Night | $5,883 | 24% | 5 | 1 | $1,177 | $441,915 | 11 | Kino Lorber |
29 | Before Stonewall | $4,588 | — | 1 | — | $4,588 | $4,588 | 1 | First Run Features |
30 | The Third Wife | $4,448 | 596% | 5 | 3 | $890 | $52,879 | 6 | Film Movement |
31 | Shadow | $3,998 | — | 5 | — | $800 | $495,658 | 8 | Well Go USA Entertainment |
32 | Walking On Water | $3,749 | 50% | 6 | 2 | $625 | $78,544 | 6 | Kino Lorber |
33 | Missing Link | $3,313 | -39% | 15 | -11 | $221 | $16,636,521 | 11 | United Artists Releasing |
34 | Be Natural: The Untold Story of Alice Guy-Blaché | $3,003 | 79% | 4 | -1 | $751 | $62,357 | 10 | Zeitgeist Films |
35 | War and Peace | $2,890 | -30% | 2 | 0 | $1,445 | $121,586 | 19 | Janus Films |
36 | Christ Stopped at Eboli | $2,662 | — | 1 | — | $2,662 | $45,839 | 12 | Rialto Pictures |
37 | The Lumber Baron | $2,582 | 65% | 2 | 0 | $1,291 | $80,887 | 5 | Indican Pictures |
38 | Funan | $1,848 | -1% | 4 | 2 | $462 | $8,520 | 3 | GKIDS |
39 | Pasolini | $1,841 | 1946% | 3 | 1 | $614 | $26,157 | 7 | Kino Lorber |
40 | Hail Satan? | $1,741 | 49% | 6 | 2 | $290 | $423,177 | 10 | Magnolia Pictures |
41 | Iyengar: The Man, Yoga, and the Student’s Journey | $1,712 | 359% | 2 | -1 | $856 | $131,180 | 11 | Kino Lorber |
42 | Hesburgh | $1,668 | 1% | 2 | -1 | $834 | $193,006 | 9 | mTuckman Media |
43 | Ask Dr. Ruth | $818 | -41% | 3 | -1 | $273 | $285,884 | 8 | Magnolia Pictures |
44 | The Church | $646 | -59% | 1 | -3 | $646 | $771,454 | 5 | Indican Pictures |
45 | Ramen Shop | $535 | — | 2 | — | $268 | $88,287 | 14 | Strand Releasing |
46 | Yomeddine | $424 | — | 2 | — | $212 | $7,357 | 4 | Strand Releasing |
47 | Transit | $338 | — | 1 | — | $338 | $815,290 | 17 | Music Box Films |
48 | Rafiki | $335 | -70% | 3 | -1 | $112 | $132,808 | 10 | Film Movement |
49 | Diamantino | $144 | -89% | 3 | 0 | $48 | $51,804 | 5 | Kino Lorber |
50 | 3 Faces | $65 | -68% | 1 | 0 | $65 | $70,301 | 16 | Kino Lorber |
51 | The Wandering Soap Opera | $48 | — | 1 | — | $48 | $2,007 | 6 | Cinema Guild |
Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JUN. 21 – SUN, JUN. 23
# | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Toy Story 4 | $118,000,000 | — | 4,575 | — | $25,792 | $118,000,000 | 1 | Disney |
2 | Child’s Play | $14,055,540 | — | 3,007 | — | $4,674 | $14,055,540 | 1 | United Artists Releasing |
3 | Aladdin | $12,200,000 | -30% | 3,435 | -121 | $3,552 | $287,510,128 | 5 | Disney |
4 | Men in Black: International | $10,750,000 | -64% | 4,224 | 0 | $2,545 | $52,689,654 | 2 | Sony / Columbia |
5 | The Secret Life of Pets 2 | $10,290,000 | -58% | 3,804 | -760 | $2,705 | $117,583,535 | 3 | Universal |
6 | Rocketman | $5,650,000 | -40% | 2,414 | -607 | $2,341 | $77,328,389 | 4 | Paramount Pictures |
7 | John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum | $4,075,000 | -36% | 1,607 | -426 | $2,536 | $156,067,424 | 6 | Lionsgate |
8 | Godzilla: King of the Monsters | $3,700,000 | -58% | 2,368 | -839 | $1,563 | $102,345,637 | 4 | Warner Bros. |
9 | Dark Phoenix | $3,600,000 | -62% | 2,054 | -1667 | $1,753 | $60,159,311 | 3 | Fox |
10 | Shaft | $3,555,000 | -60% | 2,952 | 0 | $1,204 | $15,941,394 | 2 | Warner Bros. |
11 | Late Night | $2,583,885 | -51% | 2,172 | -48 | $1,190 | $10,672,864 | 3 | Amazon Studios |
# | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Avengers: Endgame | $1,895,000 | -49% | 985 | -465 | $1,924 | $834,503,966 | 9 | Disney |
2 | Ma (2019) | $1,200,000 | -68% | 862 | -932 | $1,392 | $43,749,765 | 4 | Universal Pictures |
3 | Pavarotti | $409,000 | 85% | 135 | 87 | $3,030 | $992,088 | 3 | CBS Films |
4 | The Biggest Little Farm | $158,800 | -30% | 134 | -42 | $1,185 | $3,274,141 | 7 | Neon |
5 | Dumbo | $119,000 | -17% | 140 | -10 | $850 | $114,264,657 | 13 | Walt Disney Pictures |
6 | A Dog’s Journey | $97,000 | -79% | 171 | -139 | $567 | $22,089,000 | 6 | Universal Pictures |
7 | Captain Marvel | $65,000 | -41% | 145 | -16 | $448 | $426,754,530 | 16 | Disney |
# | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | The Last Black Man in San Francisco | $413,589 | 9% | 72 | 36 | $5,744 | $1,342,577 | 3 | A24 |
2 | Echo In the Canyon | $252,072 | 22% | 81 | 13 | $3,112 | $1,169,296 | 5 | Greenwich Entertainment |
3 | Wild Rose | $56,183 | — | 4 | — | $14,046 | $56,183 | 1 | Neon |
4 | The Spy Behind Home Plate | $50,150 | 93% | 31 | 6 | $1,618 | $191,456 | 5 | The Ciesla Foundation |
5 | All Is True | $47,730 | -46% | 77 | -113 | $620 | $1,076,598 | 7 | Sony Pictures Classics |
6 | Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am | $44,000 | — | 4 | — | $11,000 | $44,000 | 1 | Magnolia Pictures |
7 | Breakthrough | $41,000 | -36% | 72 | -35 | $569 | $40,655,364 | 10 | 20th Century Fox |
8 | The Souvenir | $37,000 | -34% | 50 | -33 | $740 | $912,260 | 6 | A24 |
9 | Framing John Delorean | $27,172 | 20% | 26 | 15 | $1,045 | $78,788 | 3 | IFC Films |
10 | Non-Fiction | $25,071 | 3% | 33 | -9 | $760 | $653,921 | 8 | IFC Films |
11 | Apollo 11 | $23,921 | 73% | 5 | 0 | $4,784 | $8,858,846 | 17 | Neon |
12 | American Woman | $19,965 | -82% | 38 | -79 | $525 | $203,372 | 2 | Roadside Attractions / Vertical Entertainment |
13 | The White Crow | $12,039 | -50% | 16 | -18 | $752 | $1,740,930 | 9 | Sony Pictures Classics |
14 | Amazing Grace | $11,100 | -33% | 27 | 0 | $411 | $4,376,970 | 12 | Neon |
15 | The Quiet One | $10,561 | — | 6 | — | $1,760 | $10,561 | 1 | IFC Films IFC Films |
16 | The Fall of The American Empire | $8,678 | 80% | 10 | 2 | $868 | $2,122,635 | 52 | Sony Pictures Classics |
17 | Woodstock: Three Days That Defined a Generation | $7,435 | -19% | 7 | -2 | $1,062 | $72,129 | 5 | PBS Distribution |
This weekend’s early estimates are below.
Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JUN. 21 – SUN, JUN. 23
# | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Toy Story 4 | $120,000,000 | — | 4,575 | — | $26,230 | $120,000,000 | 1 | Disney |
2 | Child’s Play | $14,400,000 | — | 3,007 | — | $4,789 | $14,400,000 | 1 | United Artists Releasing |
3 | Aladdin | $12,500,000 | -28% | 3,435 | -121 | $3,639 | $287,810,128 | 5 | Disney |
4 | Men in Black: International | $11,000,000 | -63% | 4,224 | 0 | $2,604 | $52,939,654 | 2 | Sony / Columbia |
5 | The Secret Life of Pets 2 | $10,900,000 | -55% | 3,804 | -760 | $2,865 | $118,193,535 | 3 | Universal |
6 | Rocketman | $5,900,000 | -37% | 2,414 | -607 | $2,444 | $77,578,389 | 4 | Paramount Pictures |
7 | Godzilla: King of the Monsters | $3,900,000 | -56% | 2,368 | -839 | $1,647 | $3,900,098 | 4 | Warner Bros. |
8 | John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum | $3,800,000 | -41% | 1,607 | -426 | $2,365 | $155,792,424 | 6 | Lionsgate |
9 | Dark Phoenix | $3,700,000 | -60% | 2,054 | -1667 | $1,801 | $60,259,311 | 3 | Fox |
10 | Anna | $3,600,000 | — | 2,114 | — | $1,703 | $3,600,000 | 1 | Lionsgate / Summit |
11 | Shaft | $3,400,000 | -62% | 2,952 | 0 | $1,152 | $15,786,394 | 2 | Warner Bros. |
12 | Late Night | $2,600,000 | -51% | 2,172 | -48 | $1,197 | $10,688,979 | 3 | Amazon Studios |
# | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Avengers: Endgame | $2,000,000 | -46% | 985 | -465 | $2,030 | $834,608,966 | 9 | Disney |
2 | Ma (2019) | $1,100,000 | -70% | 862 | -932 | $1,276 | $43,649,765 | 4 | Universal Pictures |
3 | The Dead Don’t Die | $1,100,000 | -57% | 690 | 77 | $1,594 | $4,727,915 | 2 | Focus Features |
4 | Dumbo | $108,000 | -25% | 140 | -10 | $771 | $114,253,657 | 13 | Walt Disney Pictures |
5 | Captain Marvel | $64,000 | -42% | 145 | -16 | $441 | $426,753,530 | 16 | Disney |
# | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Breakthrough | $42,000 | -34% | 72 | -35 | $583 | $40,656,364 | 10 | 20th Century Fox |
Friday Morning Update: Disney reports this morning that Toy Story 4 kicked off with an excellent $12 million start Thursday night, including shows that began with 5pm fan events and 6pm general screenings. That claims the second highest Thursday opening of all-time for an animated movie, topping the $9.2 million of Finding Dory three summers ago, while coming in behind last year’s Incredibles 2 ($18.5 million) — the standing record for an animated film. Those two films opened to $182.7 million and $135.1 million domestic weekends, respectively.
The Child’s Play remake is off to a strong start in its own right with an estimated $1.65 million from last night’s first shows. That bests Ma‘s $1.4 million kick-off a few weeks ago, while registering 28 percent behind Pet Sematary‘s $2.3 million start earlier this year.
Meanwhile, Anna took in a reported $325K from an estimated 1,700 locations last night — half the amount of Miss Bala ($650K) earlier this year and 17 percent lower than 2016’s Mechanic: Resurrection ($390K).
Read our earlier weekend forecast in this report. More updates to follow throughout the weekend.
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