The weekend ahead welcomes three openers to the March market as the latest Marvel blockbuster looks to repeat atop the box office following its stellar debut last frame. Check out our final pre-weekend analysis and forecast below.
PROS:
- Captain Marvel ($70 – 80 million) is generating positive word of mouth overall, and past origin films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe have historically posted excellent staying power.
- Five Feet Apart ($8 – 12 million) has tracked in line with titles like Love, Simon and Everything, Everything, and the source novel’s young adult fans could drive it to a healthy debut with long legs expected in the weeks ahead. The film’s modest $7 million budget should be further conducive to long-term success.
- Wonder Park ($8 – 14 million) aims to counter-program the Marvel top-liner with an option for parents whose kids are too young for the PG-13 actioner, and who have already seen films like How to Train Your Dragon 3 and The LEGO Movie 2. Initial pre-sales reports are encouraging.
- Captive State ($3 – 6 million) has tracked in line with interest levels comparable to those of The Belko Experiment, Upgrade, and Hotel Artemis and could provide a counter-programming option for adult males.
CONS:
- The challenge for Five Feet Apart will be having to share some of its core 13-34 female audience in competition with Captain Marvel itself. The studio expects a more conservative $6 – 9 million debut.
- Wonder Park‘s metrics are relatively similar to those of Sherlock Gnomes, which opened around this time last year to modest results.
- Despite the wide release from Focus Features, Captive State‘s general awareness among audiences isn’t particularly high at this stage, increasing its reliance upon word of mouth going forward.
Top 10 vs. Last Year
Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $123 million. That would mark a 4 percent increase from the same weekend last year when Tomb Raider ($23.6 million), I Can Only Imagine ($17.1 million), and Love, Simon ($11.8 million) posted successful debuts behind Black Panther‘s fifth week in the top spot. That frame’s top ten earned $118.8 million.
Weekend Forecast
| Film | Distributor | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 17 | % Change from Last Wknd |
| Captain Marvel | Disney / Marvel | $71,500,000 | $269,000,000 | -53% |
| Wonder Park | Paramount | $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 | NEW |
| Five Feet Apart | Lionsgate / CBS Films | $10,400,000 | $10,400,000 | NEW |
| How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World | Universal | $9,500,000 | $135,200,000 | -35% |
| Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral | Lionsgate | $7,200,000 | $57,800,000 | -42% |
| Captive State | Focus Features | $5,000,000 | $5,000,000 | NEW |
| The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part | Warner Bros. | $2,200,000 | $101,200,000 | -43% |
| Green Book | Universal | $1,900,000 | $83,300,000 | -24% |
| Alita: Battle Angel | Fox | $1,800,000 | $81,600,000 | -44% |
| Fighting With My Family | MGM | $1,500,000 | $21,200,000 | -31% |
Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.
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