The past few years have been nothing short of a whirlwind for Star Wars fandom, Disney, and the film industry as a whole. This weekend is poised to provide the bookend to a decade that’s seen the franchise’s reemergence into the daily discourse of the pop culture lexicon — and it’s experienced many highs and lows along the way.
Yes, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker — the end of the core, nine-episode saga that has driven the franchise for over 42 years — is arriving in theaters around the world. The industry is expecting a global debut of at least $350 million.
Our initial tracking covered the many intricacies of what’s factoring into this film’s variable potential at the box office. Of the many caveats noted, the most recent news this week of divisive reviews from industry critics has underscored the increasing volatility of projections for where Skywalker will land on the box office spectrum. The film is currently hovering just shy of the “fresh” (60 percent or higher) mark on Rotten Tomatoes.
The good news leading into this week had been strong pre-sales activity not far from the pace of The Last Jedi two years ago, and social metrics falling in line with that comparison as well. Despite the backlash toward that 2017 sequel, fans have been cautiously optimistic for this trilogy-ender with the return of director J.J. Abrams at the helm and generally well-received trailers released throughout the year.
The asterisk to those pre-sales comparisons, though, is that Last Jedi opened on December 15 — a full ten days before Christmas in 2017, placing its second weekend before the big movie-going holiday and even including the deflation of Christmas Eve on its second Sunday.
This time around, Skywalker opens just five days before Christmas, leading to a higher share of pre-sales for days beyond opening weekend as the film’s opening corridor leads directly into a stretch of 17 consecutive vacation days for kids and many parents.
We expect the effect of that to be a lower portion of opening weekend pre-sales from general audiences (i.e., casual fans and general moviegoers not in a rush to avoid spoilers by going during the first three days of release). So while pre-sales may be comparable to Last Jedi (which bowed to $220 million during its opening weekend, including $45 million from Thursday night opening previews), Rise of Skywalker‘s business is positioned to be more spread out.
That may not have been a major disadvantage in bullish forecasts because this coming Sunday will have the benefit of delivering a softer drop from Saturday than Last Jedi‘s first Sunday — but it’s hard to dispute the effect mixed reviews from critics could now have on those aforementioned casual fans who may be more likely to wait and gauge word of mouth from actual friends and family. After all, The Last Jedi was a critical darling with 91 percent of Rotten Tomatoes critics approving — all before the infamous division among fans and audiences that cut short the blockbuster’s staying power.
Had Skywalker‘s critical reception been stronger, it wouldn’t have guaranteed a higher opening weekend performance than forecast — but it would have helped the odds, to be sure. Nevertheless, this was always going to be a mostly critic-proof film and more focused on the reception from paying consumers. Many who have seen the film still feel this will play better among fans and audiences not wrapped up in unrealistic expectations than it does for critics hoping for more experimental storytelling (ala Last Jedi).
On the other side of that coin, though, pre-sales trends and exhibitor bookings haven’t popped in the way we’d like to see in the final hours before release — leading to tempered expectations at this stage. Time will soon tell, though.
To temper box office expectations, Disney is expecting a domestic opening in the $160 million+ range. The studio is typically conservative with its projections, so this (mostly) supports tracking models whose floor calls for a debut of at least $170 million.
The key perspective to maintain here is that, while that would mark a 23 to 27 percent decline from Last Jedi‘s opening frame, it would still represent the third highest December debut of all-time — behind only its own episodic predecessors — and one of the top 14 domestic openings in history.
Of note, the grand finale to the Harry Potter franchise bowed to $169.2 million in summer 2011, and The Dark Knight Rises pulled a similar $160.9 million one year later.
Prior to those franchise finales, Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith opened to $124.2 million in the Thursday-Friday-Saturday portion of its four-day weekend launch back in May 2005. That was before the advent of 6pm previews before being rolled into opening day earnings, and is certainly not a strict apples-to-apples comparison with the holiday confirmation, but that figure would adjust to approximately $175 million based on today’s average ticket prices.
However, all three of those franchise finale examples received strong critics’ reviews ahead of release.
Opening Day & Long Play Scenarios
There are more than a few scenarios that could play out for Rise of Skywalker because, again, the holiday chase weeks are known for big multiples and word of mouth is going to be as crucial as it has ever been for this venerable franchise. Below, though, are a few outlines of what appear to be the most likely outcomes at this stage.
The reality is the truth is likely some combination of these models (a higher opening doesn’t necessarily lead to the same multiplier as a lower opening, for example) — and competition from other films is relatively high again this year. These breakdowns simply offer an idea of how things could pan out in the weeks ahead based on historical calendar models… with the strong caveat that the bigger movies are perceived to be, the more susceptible to surprises they can be.
- Scenario #1 (Conservative Models): The film opens with around $70 million on opening day, including close to $30 million from previews. That would put it on target for an opening weekend close to $150 million+ (incidentally, near where Rogue One opened at $155.1 million three years ago). With expected holiday multipliers and generally positive word of mouth, it could top $250 million in its first seven days, projecting out to $335 million+ by the end of Sunday, December 29 (its third weekend) and north of $450 million by Sunday, January 5. Domestic total would then have a chance to reach $530 million or more by the end of its run — 15 percent shy of Last Jedi‘s $620 million, despite a presumed opening 27 percent lower than that film.
- Scenario #2 (Disney’s Opening Target): The film opens with around $75 million on opening day, including over $32 million from previews. That would put it on target for an opening weekend close to Disney’s expected $160 million. With expected holiday multipliers and generally positive word of mouth, it could top $270 million in its first seven days, projecting out to $350 million+ by the end of Sunday, December 29 (its third weekend) and north of $475 million by Sunday, January 5. Domestic total would then have a chance to reach $550 million or more by the end of its run — just 11 percent shy of Last Jedi‘s $620 million, despite a presumed opening 27 percent lower than that film.
- Scenario #3 (Mid-Range Models): The film opens with around $80 million on opening day, including previews of about $35 million. That would put it on target for an opening weekend close to $170 million. With expected holiday multipliers and generally positive word of mouth, it could top $280 million in its first seven days, projecting out to $375 million+ by the end of Sunday, December 29 (its third weekend) and more than $500 million by Sunday, January 5. Domestic total would then have a chance to exceed $575 million by the end of its run — just 7 percent shy of Last Jedi‘s $620 million, despite a presumed opening 23 percent lower than that film.
- Scenario #4 (Optimistic Models): The film opens with around $90 million on opening day, including just shy of $40 million from previews. That would put it on target for an opening weekend close to $190 million. With expected holiday multipliers and generally positive word of mouth, it could top $315 million in its first seven days, projecting out to $425 million+ by the end of Sunday, December 29 (its third weekend) and over $575 million by Sunday, January 5. Domestic total would then have a chance to reach $650 million+ by the end of its run — 5 percent more than Last Jedi‘s $620 million, despite a presumed opening 14 percent lower than that film.
- Scenario #5 (Highly Optimistic Models) : The film opens with around $95 million+ on opening day, including more than $40 million from previews. That would put it on target for an opening weekend of $200 million or more. With expected holiday multipliers and generally positive word of mouth, it could top $330 million in its first seven days, projecting out to $450 million+ by the end of Sunday, December 29 (its third weekend) and potentially $600 million+ by Sunday, January 5. Domestic total would then have a chance to reach $700 million by the end of its run — 13 percent more than Last Jedi‘s $620 million, despite a presumed opening 9 percent lower than that film.
Again — for perspective — these breakdowns largely assumed mostly positive word of mouth (in other words, stronger than Last Jedi and more comparable to Force Awakens or Rogue One). If that doesn’t transpire, the lion’s share of the above long-term extrapolations go out the window.
With having broken those down, our final ranges and pinpoint forecasts are below.
Weekend Ranges & Final Forecasts
- Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker ($33 – 38 million domestic previews / $160 – 190 million opening weekend $535 – 675 million domestic total)
- Cats ($9 – 14 million opening / $50 – 75 million domestic total)
- Bombshell (Expansion) ($5 – 10 million opening / $30 – 45 million domestic total)
Top 10 vs. Last Year
Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will increase approximately 40 to 55 percent from the same frame one year ago. That weekend generated $163.3 million as Aquaman, Mary Poppins Returns, and Bumblebee debuted in the top three spots ahead of Christmas week.
Weekend Forecast
| Film | Distributor | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 22 | % Change from Last Wknd |
| Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker | Disney / Lucasfilm | $183,000,000 | $183,000,000 | NEW |
| Jumanji: The Next Level | Sony / Columbia | $22,200,000 | $96,700,000 | -63% |
| Cats | Universal | $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 | NEW |
| Frozen II | Disney | $11,000,000 | $384,000,000 | -42% |
| Bombshell | Lionsgate | $6,500,000 | $7,000,000 | NEW |
| Knives Out | Lionsgate | $5,700,000 | $88,700,000 | -38% |
| Richard Jewell | Warner Bros. | $2,400,000 | $9,300,000 | -49% |
| Ford v Ferrari | Fox | $2,300,000 | $102,300,000 | -44% |
| A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood | Sony / Columbia | $2,000,000 | $53,000,000 | -39% |
| Queen & Slim | Universal | $1,900,000 | $36,700,000 | -47% |
Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday
The chart above excludes releases and potential expansions from limited and platform films
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