Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
Disney’s Zootopia has easily led the box office each of the past two weekends and appears set to lead the weekend box office for a third consecutive frame. Zootopia declined just 32 percent from last weekend and that was even with the loss of IMAX screens to 10 Cloverfield Lane factored in. Thanks in part to spring break and its continued strong word of mouth, Zootopia performed especially well on Monday and on Tuesday (when it passed the $150 million domestic mark). BoxOffice expects another strong hold for Zootopia this weekend.
Lionsgate’s The Divergent Series: Allegiant looks to come in a fairly close second place this weekend. Last year’s The Divergent Series: Insurgent opened with $52.3 million, but interest in the third installment of the series appears to have decreased significantly from its predecessor (which has been a clear trend with recent young adult sequels in general). Also opening in wide release this weekend is Miracles from Heaven. The latest faith-based film from Sony looks like it will find itself in a close race for third place with the second weekend performance of 10 Cloverfield Lane, but could potentially hold up especially well after opening weekend.
The Divergent Series: Allegiant
PROS:
– The Divergent Series has been a very solid performer thus far. 2014’s Divergent opened with $54.6 million and went on to gross $150.9 million domestically, while last year’s Insurgent opened with $52.3 million and finished with $130.2 million domestically.
– While Twitter activity has come down significantly from that of Insurgent last year, week of release Twitter activity for Allegiant has still been the third highest of any 2016 release thus far (behind only Deadpool and Zootopia).
– Allegiant has been generating respectable pre-sales at both Fandango and MovieTickets.com.
CONS:
– There was a clear trend of young adult sequels falling off from their predecessors during 2015. In addition to Insurgent falling off 14 percent from Divergent, Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 and Fox’s Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials also fell off from their predecessors. We expect the trend to continue with Allegiant.
– As mentioned, Allegiant has been performing significantly softer on Twitter than Insurgent did.
– Unlike Insurgent, Allegiant won’t receive an added boost from higher priced 3D admissions.
Miracles from Heaven
PROS:
– Sony has a strong recent history with faith-based films. 2014’s Heaven is for Real grossed $91.4 million domestically, last year’s War Room took in $67.8 million during its run and this year’s Risen has grossed a respectable $32.9 million to date.
– Miracles from Heaven has been performing significantly stronger on Twitter than both Risen and War Room did in the days leading to their respective releases, though Miracles from Heaven opening on a Wednesday is sure to inflate its Twitter activity in comparison.
– The presence of Jennifer Garner and Eugenio Derbez gives Miracles from Heaven some star power that could help the film appeal beyond faith-based audiences as well.
CONS:
– While Miracles from Heaven has been performing relatively well for a faith-based film on Twitter, it is also performing far softer on Twitter than Heaven is for Real did.
– It appears that demand for Miracles from Heaven has been limited somewhat by so many faith-based films being released in such a short amount of time. In addition to Risen and Focus’ The Young Messiah, Pure Flix’s God’s Not Dead 2 is set to open on April 1.
– The break-out performance of Zootopia will likely limit potential for Miracles from Heaven out of the gate this weekend. It’s still possible that like many faith-based films, Miracles from Heaven could be quite back-loaded beyond opening weekend though, especially with the approaching Easter holiday.
Top 10 Forecast
BoxOffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will total $117.0 million. That would come in just a tad below the $117.3 million top ten total of the same weekend last year. That weekend was led by the mentioned $52.3 million debut of Lionsgate’s Insurgent, saw Disney’s Cinderella claim second place in its second weekend with $35.0 million and soft debuts by both Open Road’s The Gunman ($5.0 million) and Pure Flix’s Do You Believe? ($3.6 million).
Check out our complete forecast in the table below.
| Title | Release Date | Distributor | Weekend | Domestic Total Through Sunday, Mar 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zootopia | Mar 4, 2016 | Disney | $37,000,000 | $200,000,000 |
| The Divergent Series: Allegiant | Mar 18, 2016 | Lionsgate / Summit | $33,000,000 | $33,000,000 |
| Miracles from Heaven | Mar 16, 2016 | Sony / TriStar | $12,800,000 | $16,200,000 |
| 10 Cloverfield Lane | Mar 11, 2016 | Paramount | $11,800,000 | $44,700,000 |
| Deadpool | Feb 12, 2016 | Fox | $8,000,000 | $340,900,000 |
| London Has Fallen | Mar 4, 2016 | Focus / Gramercy | $6,200,000 | $49,400,000 |
| Whiskey Tango Foxtrot | Mar 4, 2016 | Paramount | $3,000,000 | $19,500,000 |
| The Perfect Match | Mar 11, 2016 | Lionsgate / Codeblack Films | $2,000,000 | $7,400,000 |
| The Young Messiah | Mar 11, 2016 | Focus | $1,700,000 | $6,100,000 |
| The Brothers Grimsby | Mar 11, 2016 | Sony / Columbia | $1,500,000 | $6,000,000 |
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