The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | April 4 – 6, 2025
Week 14 | April 4 – 6, 2025
1. A Minecraft Movie
Warner Bros. | NEW
Weekend Range: $85M – $100M
Showtime Marketshare: 31%
Pros
- The great blockbuster drought of 2025 may finally cease thanks to Warner Bros.’ big-budget A Minecraft Movie, starring Jack Black and Jason Momoa. Our forecasters were initially looking toward a $60M+ debut for the block-based video game adaptation, but this live-action/CG animated hybrid has genuine momentum behind it. Part of that concerns the marketing blitz kicking into high gear, with Happy Meals and delightfully pudgy action figures galore. Some great traction in pre-sales leading into release caused us to increase our forecast to $85M – $100M… with considerable potential to surpass the century mark. The last movie to open over $100M was Moana 2 over the Thanksgiving 3-Day frame in November. A safe and achievable number in the $80M range seems like a sure bet. If this film can perform along expectations, it will go a long way towards recovering from a bad March that derailed a January-February that largely performed according to expectations, leading to a downward Q1. Expect Minecraft to finally take us to a positive year-over-year compared to this frame in 2024 when the second weekend of Godzilla X Kong raised overall BO to $85.5M.
Cons
- By the time that infamous movie version of toy property Masters of the Universe came out in 1987, the brand was already on the outs after peaking in ’84/’85. Although still popular, Minecraft video game revenue has gone through a similar shift, peaking in 2018 ($500M) compared to 2024 ($220M), while users reached their apex during the pandemic in 2020 (131M) vs 2024 (62M, the lowest number of players since 2017). Development on a Minecraft feature began in 2014 when Warners was riding high off the wild success of The LEGO Movie ($468.15M), but that brand quickly obeyed the law of diminishing returns until 2019’s The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part bombed out at just under $200M WW. Universal now controls the LEGO film franchise. Other toy-based copycats like Playmobil and Uglydolls came and went, while even a dependable toy movie franchise like Transformers sputtered. Giving Minecraft a ray of hope is the success of Barbie, which became Warners’ biggest global grosser ever in 2023 at $1.44B, as well as The Super Mario Bros. Movie (also featuring Jack Black) at $1.35B, though those were far more established brands compared to not-even-15-year-old Minecraft. The worst case would be a scenario where the pre-sales may be a fan-driven mirage of demand, but all indicators say it has a very realistic chance of hitting and even crossing that hundred million benchmark.
- Star Black had plenty of box office juice with kiddie fare like the Jumanji and Kung Fu Panda films, although his two-movie Goosebumps franchise ($252M combined) as well as The House With a Clock in its Walls ($131.4M) stalled out. Momoa continues his in-roads into eccentric character work in Minecraft after playing the obnoxious baddie in Fast X and watching his Aquaman sequel sink like the Bismarck ($439.38M). Director Jared Hess of Napoleon Dynamite fame previously worked with Black on the successful Nacho Libre in 2006 (nearly $100M WW)… but has not had a hit since. No reviews yet, but early social reactions are mixed-positive, praising the zaniness but calling it an overall mixed bag.
2. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2
Fathom Entertainment | NEW
Weekend Range: $10M – $12M
Showtime Marketshare: 5%
Pros
- We expect another solid outing from Fathom Entertainment’s The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 after the extraordinary demand and results from Part 1 over the weekend ($11,75M to take the #3 spot). With $14.46M total domestically, Part 1 is close to breaking the franchise record set by The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 & 2 ($14.67M), which is the 20th biggest grossing faith-based release ever. A $10 – $12M range in line with last weekend is how we’re adjusting our forecasting for Last Supper – Part 2, which we expect to finish second.
Cons
- Although it is set to drop on Amazon Prime later this year, 5&2 Studios’ The Chosen Season 5 -episodes of which these feature-length theatricals are made up of- is raising the bar for theatrical debuts of streaming series. If it can work for a faith-based audience show or anime titles like Demon Slayer: To the Hashira Training ($17.65M domestic) with specific appeal, how could it not work for popular series like Stranger Things or White Lotus? The downside here is not for The Chosen, but for streamers stubbornly missing out on a potentially vast revenue stream debuting their shows in theaters.
3. A Working Man
Amazon/MGM | Week 2
Weekend Range: $7M – $9M
Showtime Marketshare: 8%
Pros
- Jason Statham’s latest workman-like action effort A Working Man overperformed to take the top spot this past weekend with $15.5M over the 3-Day (up from initial $15.2M estimates). We’re expecting a modest slide down to third with a $7M – $9M hold. That’s in the same ballpark as the previous Statham/David Ayer joint The Beekeeper, which dropped -48% in Frame 2 to bring in $8.6M. Currently, domestic ($16.79M) and international takes ($16.57M) on this title are basically even for a global total of $ 33.36 M. A Working Man should be able to collect his payday with a $50M+ global total by the end of the weekend.
Cons
- The Beekeeper had $20.48M by this time in its run, and also had the advantage of better play overseas. It ended its run with $66.2M domestic, which A Working Man could match, and $152.4M globally… which it might not match. Amazon/MGM is in the deep pocketed “theatrical as advertising for streaming” game, so it might not matter to them. Still, if Statham’s goal was to become the Charles Bronson of his generation he’s pretty well got there.
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