The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | August 16 – 18, 2024
Week 33 | August 16 – 18, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 33, 2024: $125M — $160M
1. Alien: Romulus
20th Century Studios | NEW
Weekend Range: $45M – $55M
Pros
- Alien: Romulus is the first film in the 45-year-old sci-fi horror franchise to be made under the supervision of Disney-owned 20th Century Studios, who have so far been putting out solid Fox IP installments ala Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes or Hulu’s much-loved Prey. Like those films, Romulus provides both fan service towards the prior movies as well as being an accessible entry point for new fans with its cast of young fresh faces. Taking place between 1979’s Alien and 1986’s Aliens, this installment was originally going to get the Prey treatment and debut on Hulu, but the studio was so confident in what director Fede Álvarez was cooking up that they shifted it to theatrical, and in a prime summer slot no less. We expect a solid opening hovering around the $50M mark, which is where Prometheus performed back in 2012. Early reactions indicate 20th Century is delivering a satisfying, crowd-pleasing product to theaters this weekend.
Cons
- A big problem with the Alien franchise is it has one foot in the expensive sci-fi world and the other in exploitative shock horror. Álvarez ratchets up the gore quotient in Romulus, which will please some fans but perhaps turn off general audiences. That grindhouse quality and restrictive R-ratings have always kept these films from performing like a Star Wars movie despite the trappings of spaceships, hardware, and creatures. All the previous films have had steep drops in Week 2, between 59% and 70%, so Romulus will need to perform well out the gate.
- While the studio is hyping up the connections to fan favorite Alien and Aliens, the new film also acknowledges elements of Ridley Scott’s divisive prequels Prometheus and Alien: Covenant, which may be a turnoff. Covenant made a disappointing showing of only $74.2M domestically (less than 2004’s maligned AVP: Alien Vs. Predator), and stopped Scott in his tracks from making more prequels. Still, the OG director acts as an executive producer on this one and was clearly determined to make sure the story threads he started in the prequels were at least given some real estate in Romulus. Aliens‘ James Cameron also provided some input to Álvarez but has recently distanced himself somewhat from the movie.
Because the pop culture impact of these movies has been so pervasive, it’s easy to mistake the level of financial success they have had. Worldwide this IP has done well, amassing over $1.63 billion globally, though Prometheus is actually the only entry to make over $100M stateside, and the median take of all 8 films domestically is around $70M. Here’s how previous Alien installments opened, with Romulus in the running to potentially set a first frame series record…
- Prometheus (2012) – $51M opening/$126.4M domestic cume
- AVP: Alien vs. Predator (2004) – $38.2M opening/$80.2M domestic cume
- Alien: Covenant (2017) – $36.1M opening/$74.2M domestic cume
- Alien 3 (1992) – $23.1M opening/$54.9M domestic cume
- Alien: Resurrection (1997) – $16.4M opening/$47.8M domestic cume
- Aliens vs. Predator – Requiem (2007) – $10M opening/$41.7M domestic cume
- Aliens (1986) – $10M opening/$85.1M domestic cume
- Alien (1979) – $3.5M opening/$64.3M domestic cume
2. Deadpool & Wolverine
Marvel Studios | Week 4
Weekend Range: $30M – $35M
Pros
- On Monday Marvel’s Deadpool & Wolverine made an additional $5,851,271 million, bumping domestic cume to just shy of $500M (which it certainly has passed by today). Even if it never jumps past 2012’s The Avengers ($623.3M) or it’s competition for #1 of the year Inside Out 2 ($636.9M) there is no spinning this performance as anything but a massive win for all involved. Even if Reynolds never makes another solo Deadpool movie, which he claims will be the case, you can bet he’ll be squeezing that ass into red spandex in other MCU entries. With these kind of dollars, you should never say never… as we learned with Hugh Jackman after Logan.
Cons
- We’re in the endgame now for this title as it could go lower than $30M and finish third since it has the closest thing to “direct” competition in R-rated Alien: Romulus, not to mention losing an additional share of Premium Large Format theaters to the xenomorphs. Still, Disney once again has the luxury of competing against itself, and if Romulus winds up being the biggest grosser of August (sorry The Crow) then the studio will officially own every month of this summer after Planet of the Apes (May), Inside Out (June), and Deadpool (July).
3. It Ends With Us
Sony Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $25 – $30M
Pros
The Blake Lively romantic drama It Ends With Us massively over-indexed over its opening weekend with $50M domestic and $80M global. This was a major victory for Sony’s approach of bringing more cost-conscious films to market (Anyone But You, The Garfield Movie), nearly equalling the market share of Warner Bros. (12.16% vs 14.89%), a studio that massively overspent on tentpoles (Furiosa, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom). Extending the Lively vs Reynolds horserace, It Ends With Us actually out-grossed Deadpool on Monday with $6.25M over $5.85 million, respectively. That’s a good indicator that this movie might overtake Deadpool for the #2 spot this weekend, especially if it adds locations.
Cons
What’s the downside for a movie that more than tripled its budget globally in its first frame while also pulling in a huge female-dominated audience that typically does not venture to theaters? Nothing if you’re a theater owner or an audience member, though if you’re Sony you probably wish you weren’t co-financing/profit sharing with star/director Justin Baldoni’s Wayfarer Studios shingle. That couldn’t be helped, though, since Baldoni acquired the hot book very early on in its success. With $56.2M domestic already, there will be plenty to go around for both parties when all is said and done.
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