The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | September 6 – 8, 2024
Week 36 | September 6 – 8, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 36, 2024: $145M — $185M
1. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Warner Bros. | NEW
Weekend Range: $115M – $145M
Showtime Marketshare: 36%
Pros
- For three weekends, the firewall of Deadpool/Alien/It Ends With Us has gone unbroken (although Monday actuals eventually pushed It Ends With Us to #5 this week). Apparently, all we needed to do to break that streak was to say “Beetlejuice” twice as Warner Bros. ramps up for the splashy debut of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, director Tim Burton’s hotly anticipated followup to his 1988 hit ghost comedy. So far, the film has earned solid reviews with 81% on Rotten Tomatoes after a successful early debut at the Venice Film Festival and even earlier press junket (a sign of confidence from the studio). Even though more reviews are set to roll in from the all-media screenings on Tuesday, the positive buzz has been enough to raise expectations to a $100M+ opening weekend.
- Another wholistic benefit of the second Beetlejuice earning $100M+ this coming weekend will be single-handedly pushing the overall box office back into nine figures after two slow weekends carried by recurring titles where it hovered in the $80M’s. With the exception of Geena Davis and Alec Baldwin (whose deceased characters are written out with one line in the movie), most of the major nostalgia players from the first are back, including Michael Keaton as the iconic title Bio-Exorcist, Winona Ryder as Lydia, and Catherine O’Hara as Delia. Hot up-and-comer Jenna Ortega of the Scream franchise and Burton’s hit Wednesday series is there to bring in the Gen Alphas, with a cadre of dependable character actors (Justin Theroux, Monica Bellucci, Willem Dafoe, Danny DeVito) rounding things out. This exquisite mix of familiar faces, returning characters, and Burton’s trademark macabre humor/cartoony visuals will hopefully drive this one to perform steadily through Halloween (when the story is set). Well-positioned marketing tie-ins with Fanta and Keebler, as well as riding the signature popcorn bucket wave at Regal, AMC, and Cinemark, can only drive ticket sales further.
Cons
- Arriving 36 years after the original, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice stands as one of the longest-gestating direct sequels ever alongside Top Gun: Maverick (36 years), Blade Runner 2049 (33 years), Coming 2 America (33 years), The Odd Couple II (30 years), and (if you count it) Mary Poppins Returns (54 years). With the exception of Maverick, those films were not necessarily well-received, and getting stale/actors aging over their long march toward the screen factors in. A Beetlejuice follow-up has been in the works since shortly after the first film became a sleeper hit in March of 1988, but Burton becoming occupied with the Batman franchise left tossed scripts like Beetlejuice Goes Hawaiian collecting dust. After two Batman entries, Burton and Keaton eventually re-teamed for the Disney dud Dumbo, an experience so sour it almost drove Burton to quit making films. Keaton also did not relish the experience. Hence, the combination of Burton and Keaton is not as established nor prolific as the director’s partnership with Johnny Depp over eight movies.
Since Burton made over a billion dollars for Disney with 2010’s live-action Alice in Wonderland (a career-best), his track record at the box office has slipped, especially domestically. Here’s a rundown…
- Dumbo (2019) – $114.7M domestic/$353.1M WW
- Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (2016) – $87.2M domestic/$295.9M WW
- Dark Shadows (2012) – $79.7M domestic/$245.5M WW
- Frankenweenie (2012) – $35.2M domestic/$81.1M WW
- Big Eyes (2014) – $14.4M domestic/$27.3M WW
Big Eyes failed to recapture his Ed Wood biopic energy, while remaking a Disney classic (Dumbo), a cult TV show (Dark Shadows), and even his own 1984 short film (Frankenweenie) lacked his typical panache at recycling pop culture artifacts. This list excludes Burton-produced bombs, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter and Alice Through the Looking Glass. Just the name “Tim Burton” used to be a selling point a la Steven Spielberg or Christopher Nolan, but that has not been the case of late. It’s quite possible Burton’s brand of gothic whimsy may have had its day, though returning to familiar ground with Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will hopefully reignite the world’s love for the dark auteur.
2. Deadpool & Wolverine
Marvel Studios | Week 7
Weekend Range: $7M – $10M
Showtime Marketshare: 8%
Pros
At $603.9M domestic, Deadpool & Wolverine is finally looking to overtake 2012’s The Avengers ($623.3M) as the 5th highest-grossing MCU entry stateside, which it will likely accomplish around or just after this coming frame. Having taken in $15.4M last weekend, we’re looking at a drop around or under 50% at most, which is still great for this title. Disney has kept the title exclusive to theaters 40 days into release, helping drive box office sales in its later frames. Launching blockbusters onto home video even as they place high on the theatrical charts has become a trend this year, as when Warners dropped Dune: Part Two onto Digital only a month-and-a-half after release… even as the movie was still in the Top 5 at the box office.
Cons
Beetlejuice is sucking all the oxygen out of the room box office-wise this weekend, which means the Merc With a Mouth will end his reign at the top after winning five out of the last six weekends. Even though Deadpool & Wolverine‘s percentage drops have gotten lower with each successive weekend, that will change this frame after posting a personal-best -16% drop over Labor Day weekend.
TOSS UP:
3. It Ends With Us
Sony Pictures | Week 5
Weekend Range: $4M – $6M
Showtime Marketshare: 6%
3.The Front Room
A24 | NEW
Weekend Range: $4M – $6M
Showtime Marketshare: 6%
Pros
Like Deadpool & Wolverine, the romantic drama smash It Ends With Us has posted lower drops over successive weekends. We’re looking at potentially the lowest drop yet for the Blake Lively-starrer, even as A24 mounts a counter-offensive for the female demo with their new horror programmer, The Front Room. Written and directed by Max and Sam Eggers, brothers of The Witch helmer Robert Eggers, the film stars famed singer/actress Brandy Norwood (aka Brandy) as a pregnant woman who takes her husband’s demented/estranged step-mother into their home. Micro-aggressions turn into macro-aggressions quickly. The story is based on a story by British writer Susan Hill, whose The Woman in Black has been successfully adapted several times and recently spawned a franchise.
Cons
Monday actuals knocked It Ends With Us out of its original projected #3 spot over Labor Day to #5 under Reagan and Twisters. It could bounce back, save for A24’s R-rated Beetlejuice counter-programming with The Front Room, which may snatch the #3 throne away. We have both titles neck-and-neck, although The Front Room could flatline the same way Afraid did last weekend. Much of the marketing is anchored by Brandy, who has yet to headline a theatrical movie since Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor in 2013. The star has been relegated to streaming fare like Best. Christmas. Ever!, though an arty A24 fright flick might be just the ticket to relaunching her movie career. Reviews are not out yet, which is never a positive sign.
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