The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | August 23 – 25, 2024
Week 34 | August 23 – 25, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 34, 2024: $70M — $100M
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Marvel Studios | Week 5
Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Pros
- After getting knocked off the top spot last week by Disney’s own Alien: Romulus, Deadpool & Wolverine might reclaim the #1 position this frame. Our prediction panel gives Deadpool a slight edge over the face huggers simply because the MCU movie has been holding strong, while Alien movies tend to suffer steep second-weekend drops.
Cons
- So far all of this movie’s drops have been slightly over/under -50%, and since it took in $29M last frame that means it might come in a little under $15M on the lower end of the prediction scale.
2. Alien: Romulus
20th Century Studios | Week 2
Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Pros
- As of Monday, Romulus is at $45.7M domestic and $113.8M worldwide. It will likely overtake the lifetime globals of Aliens vs. Predator – Requiem ($128.8M) and Alien 3 ($158.5M) by the end of its second weekend and has a shot at beating the WW all-in of the original Alien ($186.9M) to become the #3 grosser in the franchise by September. Domestically it could be the #5 title in the series by Sunday if it can crest Alien‘s $64.3M. With a “B+” CinemaScore the word-of-mouth is solid enough that it could still remain at #1 in frame two, but it will be by a photo finish with Deadpool & Wolverine.
Cons
- As previously mentioned, the Alien franchise has generally had steep Week 2 drops between -59% and -70%. Last weekend it came in with $42M (after Monday actuals), so a steeper-than-expected drop could prevent it from hitting $100 million like Alien: Covenant before it.
3. It Ends With Us
Sony Pictures | Week 3
Weekend Range: $12M – $16M
Pros
- The romantic drama is still bringing home the bacon for Sony and partner Wayfarer Studios, having crossed the $100M domestic milestone at $104,112,969 million and nearing $200M globally at $186,298,057 million. It made $24M last weekend, and we’re looking at no more than a -50% dip this coming frame.
Cons
- The leaked drama of the production and press tour for the film has in some ways overshadowed what should have been a victorious moment for the movie and star Blake Lively. It’s hard to say what if any, effect this has had on the box office, but it has detracted from conversations about the merits of the movie and its message about domestic violence.
The Race for Fourth
Three new titles are dropping into the marketplace this week, vying for the #4 spot behind previous weeks’ big titles. Our prediction panel shows them all looking at similar takes, which means it’s anyone’s game for fourth place. None of them are expected to make a big impact, either, so this may be the first frame since the dark days of late May/early June where the box office at large doesn’t hit $100M over the weekend.
Blink Twice
Amazon/MGM | NEW
Weekend Range: $6M – $10M
Pros
- Actress Zoë Kravitz (Mad Max: Fury Road) steps behind the scenes to direct and co-write the psychological thriller Blink Twice starring rising talent Naomi Ackie (Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody) as a young woman who travels to the private island of a charismatic tech billionaire (Channing Tatum) only to find things are not what they seem after her friend vanishes. Rotten Tomatoes currently has the movie at 79% critical, and word of mouth could make this the one new film with the potential to over-index.
Cons
- While landing Tatum to play against type as an evil billionaire baddie might seem like a good get for the filmmakers, his pull has come into question after Apple’s expensive rom-com Fly Me to the Moon tanked last month with only $20M domestic. There’s also the inexplicable failure of last year’s threequel Magic Mike’s Last Dance, which bottomed out stateside with $26M. That buzzy Gambit cameo notwithstanding, playing the heavy in a thriller is either a brilliant counter-punch to Tatum’s hunky appeal or another career miscalculation. As thrillers go, this summer’s Longlegs was a knockout, but Trap proved audiences will stay home if the premise doesn’t ultimately deliver.
The Crow
Lionsgate | NEW
Weekend Range: $6M – $10M
Pros
James O’Barr’s dark indie comic book The Crow made for a visually stunning sleeper hit with 1994’s initial adaptation by Alex Proyas, which rode a wave of publicity when it was completed after the tragic accidental death of star Brandon Lee on set. That movie took in $50M domestic, though successive entries have been unable to replicate its success. Still, the legacy of that movie as a piece of genre IP remains strong today through merchandising and reissues of the graphic novel. Bill Skarsgård is playing a more contemporary twist on the character that’s less defined by the comic or previous film, which may bring a freshness needed for an update this long after the original.
Cons
This remake spent so long in development hell—Mark Wahlberg, Bradley Cooper, Tom Hiddleston, Jack Huston, and Jason Momoa were all attached at some point since work began in 2008—that whatever goodwill it may have rode in on has all-but-vanished. While the film has not screened for press yet (not a good sign), early trickles have not been positive. Add to that the stain of one poorly-received 1996 theatrical sequel, The Crow: City of Angels ($25.3M domestic), as well as two direct-to-video cash-ins (2000’s Salvation and 2005’s Wicked Prayer), and you have a franchise that has been pretty well diluted in the last three decades.
The Forge
Sony Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $4M – $8M
Pros
Kendrick Brothers Productions is putting out a spinoff to its 2015 faith-based smash War Room, which took in $73.9M globally. We expect this to perform in the $4M to $8M realm that most movies for this dependable audience have been earning this year.
Cons
Just because it’s faith-based does not always guarantee an audience. April’s Unsung Hero did well is a quiet marketplace, opening at $7.7.M for a $20.3M domestic take. However, this month’s The Firing Squad tanked with only $1.7M earned since debuting August 2. Also the Kendrick’s last couple of releases were non-starters, including Show Me the Father ($1.9M) and Lifemark ($5.4M).
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