The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | July 26 – 28, 2024
Week 30 | July 26 – 28, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 30, 2024: $250M — $300M
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Marvel Studios | NEW
Weekend Range: $180 – $200M
The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes Dashboard Marketshare: 43%
Pros
- It’s been 6-years since Ryan Reynolds last outing as Deadpool and 7-years since Hugh Jackman’s “final” performance as Wolverine in Logan. Add in the fact that they’re both now part of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, and their new team-up movie Deadpool & Wolverine is event moviegoing like none other. Fandango just announced that this is the top pre-seller of the year, outdoing Dune: Part Two‘s record from February. While Jackman is a beloved stage and screen actor who’s an asset to any movie, Reynolds is a junket master. The longtime Deadpool performer (since 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine) has been promoting the film aggressively across the globe and on social media, not to mention cross-promotion with brands like Heineken, Heinz, and Jack in the Box overseen by the actor’s own Maximum Effort agency. And let’s not forget that salacious popcorn bucket for AMC, which joins a number of other merchandising efforts from competing chains.
- We’re expecting this to be the biggest R-rated opener of all time, beating its predecessor’s records of $132.4M for 2016’s Deadpool and $125.5M for Deadpool 2. As Reynolds says in Deadpool 2: “Now I’m talked about in the same sentence as Jesus: Passion of the Christ, then me, at least domestically. We beat them overseas, where there’s no such thing as religion.” Indeed, beating Passion of the Christ‘s $370.7M domestic take seems like a slam dunk, and the two Deadpool solo movies made over $780M WW each, so this should be a strong earner through the end of the summer.
Cons
- There are only a few cons for this opening weekend, but early reactions to the film indicate red flags that could have a big impact on the movie’s overall performance over the rest of the summer. Although it has a Certified Fresh 80% critical on Rotten Tomatoes right now, several of the more critical reviews point out that much of the movie is filled to the brim with meta references to past MCU and Fox superhero films as well as inside baseball Hollywood jokes that may fly over the heads of general audiences. Previous Deadpool films relied on a highly emotional core to their stories surrounded by lewd fourth-wall-breaking jokes and gore, but adding story beats from streaming series Loki and many other Marvel movies may prove a stumbling block for Deadpool & Wolverine. While audiences were initially thrilled by the novelty of the MCU’s serialized storytelling, the drop in attendance since 2019’s Avengers: Endgame has resulted in misfires like Eternals, Ant Man & The Wasp: Quantumania, and The Marvels. That Multiverse Saga downturn (which is mentioned directly in D&W as a “low point”) is often attributed to an increasingly convoluted cinematic universe that requires too much homework for general audiences to cotton to. Letting the Deadpool character run wild in the MCU sandbox seemed like a dream scenario a few years ago, but you can’t fight franchise fatigue… even with adamantium. This MCU backlash combined with the restrictive R-rating may ultimately mean the movie is super front-loaded and unlikely to beat Inside Out 2 for #1 movie of the year nor Joker’s #1 status as the biggest R-rated flick globally ($1.078). Still, it should make more than enough money to keep Disney and theaters quite happy.
2. Twisters
Universal | Week 2
Weekend Range: $40 – $45M
The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes Dashboard Marketshare: 16%
Pros
Twisters‘ tornado-chasing thrill ride over-performed in its debut frame last weekend with an $80.5M domestic launch on 4,151 screens, making it the biggest-ever opening for a natural disaster film. As we previously stated, the original Twister from 1996 had a very strong hold in the three weeks following its $41M debut ($37M, $37.9M, and $17.1M, respectively), and we expect the movie to have continued patronage in the heartland of America where Deadpool’s foul-mouthed bloody antics may not be considered such a hoot. At the end of the day, Deadpool & Wolverine is not a four-quadrant movie, even though it will open like one, whereas Twisters has a much broader PG-13 adventure appeal that can bring in more families burned out on animated flicks.
Cons
While the original Twister may have been a box office barn burner nearly three decades ago, tornados and Glen Powell’s smile likely won’t be a match against the combined box office clout of Deadpool, Wolverine, and the MCU. Our prediction panel is looking at a drop above -50% as it withstands the mutant onslaught. However, given the positive response (92% RT audience score and an “A-” CinemaScore), it should still hold nicely.
3. Despicable Me 4
Universal/Illumination | Week 4
Weekend Range: $12 – $15M
The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes Dashboard Marketshare: 11%
Pros
Illumination’s crown jewel franchise continues to be a cash cow, taking in $23.8M in its third frame last weekend with a -45% drop and a current $263.6M domestic cume as of Monday, about to jump past Despicable Me 3 ($264.6M). It also crossed the $500M mark globally with $592.9M and passed the first Despicable Me domestically and internationally ($252.7M/$544.7M). As long as audiences keep showing up for these, no matter how low the critical scores, Illumination will keep them in the pipeline.
Cons
Globally, the fourquel has been anemic compared to all other films in the series besides the first one. Despicable Me 2 and 3 and the two Minions spin-offs have all grossed in the neighborhood of a billion globally, and as of right now, that looks unlikely for this movie. Despicable Me 4 also sits in the long shadow of Pixar’s Inside Out 2, which just passed Disney Animation Studios’ Frozen II as the all-time animated movie champ at the global box office. The Illumination sequel is already incredibly profitable for the studio and theaters (not to mention merchandise), with another Minions movie in development. Pixar itself churned out two sub-par/under-performing Cars sequels based solely on how huge the merch side was for the company.
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