The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | January 24 – 26, 2025
Week 4 | January 24 – 26, 2025
1. Flight Risk
Lionsgate | NEW
Weekend Range: $12M – $15M
Showtime Market Share: 13%
Pros
As a director Mel Gibson has an excellent track record of delivering serious historical dramas like Braveheart ($75.5M), Hacksaw Ridge ($67.2M), and (of course) The Passion of the Christ ($370.7M). With Flight Risk he delivers a straightforward airborne thriller headlined by Mark Wahlberg in an unusual heel turn. This title has shown sustained interest in pre-release tracking and should give Lionsgate its second number-one finish of the month.
Cons
Wahlberg’s box office pull has dimmed in recent years after five direct-to-streaming features and multiple box office underperformers including Joe Bell ($1.4M), Father Stu ($21M), and last year’s Arthur the King ($25M) for Lionsgate. Hopefully by subverting his usual marquee roles shaving his head to play a bad guy this time around he can gain a new audience. Flight Risk was also pushed from October 2024 to January 2025, which is typically not a sign of confidence… yet January has proven to be fruitful for action fare like Gerard Butler’s Plane and Jason Statham’s The Beekeeper.
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 6
Weekend Range: $5M – $7M
Showtime Market Share: 9%
Pros
When Monday actuals came around Mufasa: The Lion King wound up on top of the 3-Day weekend with $12M (originally $11.5M), its second time in the top position. As we run up to frame 6 this is still the top choice for family audiences in a frigid weather weekend, though it would take Flight Risk seriously getting its wings clipped to maintain the #1 spot.
Cons
At $593.9M Mufasa looks to cross the $600M mark globally by Sunday. Internationally the movie has done better than domestic but still not close to the 2019 remake’s numbers. The top territory is France with $36M, compared to $80.5M in 2019. The UK is second with $31.8M as opposed to $104.5M in 2019.
3. One of Them Days
Sony Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $5M – $7M
Showtime Market Share: 8%
Pros
One of Them Days took everyone by surprise, overperforming and nearly taking the 3-Day weekend. Once final figures were tallied it wound up at #2, yet actually went up from $11.6M to $11.8M. After last weekend’s debut, it remains to be seen how much impact word-of-mouth can generate for the second frame. This one could easily come in second place given the excellent PostTrak data among women (93%/97% women under 25).
Cons
In typical Sony style the budget was kept in check on this one at a mere $14M, so even if One of Them Days nosedives in frame 2 they will be in a good place in terms of returns. Right now our forecast panel has the film dropping around or over 50% in frame 2 on its way to possibly hitting the $25M mark by Sunday.
Wildcard
4. Presence
Neon | NEW
Weekend Range: $4M – $6M
Showtime Market Share: 7%
Pros
Director Steven Soderbergh’s technique of shooting the entire movie from the ghost’s perspective legitimately works, transcending gimmickry. Most critics agree, with Presence sitting comfortably at 90% on Rotten Tomatoes. Even if this one opens soft it could have a chance to grow its audience via word-of-mouth in the coming weeks. Distributor Neon astounded with their horror hit Longlegs last year ($74.3M), but we expect this one to perform more like their other 2024 genre entry Immaculate ($15.6M). As an inexpensive indie there’s little downside on this title.
Cons
Soderbergh’s films have been mostly remanded to the streaming world the last several years, with his most recent horror experiment Unsane cratering with $7.69M domestic. For all its effectiveness, Presence may be a tough sell to genre audiences looking for thrills as opposed to slow burn dread. Presence hasn’t really been able to break out as either a specialty or horror title, and will need word-of-mouth to shine. On the horror side, Wolf Man is out there as a better-marketed competition and it didn’t really drum up much interest last weekend.
Share this post