The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | November 27 – Dec 1, 2024
Week 48 | November 27 – Dec 1, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 48, 2024: $230M — $300M
1. Moana 2
Walt Disney Pictures | NEW
Weekend 3-Day Range: $140M – $170M
Weekend 5-Day Range: $170M – $200M
Pros
- Disney’s sequel to their 2016 Polynesian mythology-themed smash is heading into the Thanksgiving frame with every advantage, not least following up a hit movie that has continued to endure into the streaming era. Previews begin tonight, with the original Moana having taken in $2.6M in Tuesday night previews and $82M over its own 5-day Thanksgiving frame. This one looks to debut significantly better and could reach (or cross) $200M by Sunday. Wicked‘s initial failure to capture a significant enough audience 17 or under will be Moana‘s gain, but could also mean that both female-friendly fantasy musicals can excel over the holiday weekend without canceling each other out. With K-12 schools currently closing or closed, that younger crowd will be a massive box office injection similar to what we saw over the summer with Inside Out, then it’s a clear runway for that demo until Paramount’s Sonic 3 and Disney’s Mufasa duke it out for the kiddie dollar on December 20.
Cons
- Originally developed as a Disney+ series, Moana 2 was announced as a welcome addition to the theatrical release schedule in February of this year. Despite a last-minute re-assembly of key voice cast (Auliʻi Cravalho, Dwayne Johnson, Temuera Morrison), Disney was unable to bring back songwriter Lin-Manuel Miranda, whose memorable tracks from the first included “You’re Welcome” and the Oscar-nominated “How Far I’ll Go.” Early criticism has posited Miranda’s absence as notable, despite the tunes being handled by Grammy-winners Abigail Barlow and Emily Bear (The Unofficial Bridgerton Musical). This could be a real problem when the movie is competing with time-tested Wicked songs.
2. Wicked
Universal Pictures | Week 2
Weekend 3-Day Range: $60M – $80M
Weekend 5-Day Range: $80M – $100M
Pros
- When the dust settled on Monday actuals we were hoping Wicked‘s weekend estimate of $114M would shoot up a little, but it went the other way to $112.5M. Despite playing softer than initial expectations, we expect a lot of the pre-sales for this movie were for Thanksgiving weekend and that the musical will continue to play spectacularly into December. That “A” CinemaScore represents great word-of-mouth, along with the “to sing or not to sing in the theater” debates sparking further interest. Wherever you stand on that divide, you have to admit any musical that makes audiences want to sing in the first place is doing its job right. Hence, we’re looking at a potential nine-figure pull for the 5-Day holiday frame on its way to easily breaking past the $200M mark domestically. Outlook for this is good considering the November Monday record it just logged with Universal reporting $15.8M, besting Frozen II‘s previous $12.7M record holder.
Cons
- The most telling demographic statistic for Wicked‘s opening weekend was the 17 and under age brackets, with kids under 12 representing 7% of the audience and 13-17’s only 6%. Compare that to Frozen II‘s opening during this same frame in 2019 where 31% of the audience were under age 11. Ultimately, this means that Wicked is not playing quite like the four quadrant movie it needs to be, drawing largely older crowds. To add more ominous clouds over Oz, that $50.4M international haul (less than half the stateside money) means that -even with more territories set to open, including a potential China bonanza- Wicked might not pass the billion mark globally, even though it seems certain to earn enough to justify Part Two next year. Again, to use a similar style comp, roughly 2/3rds Frozen II‘s $1.45B WW total came from overseas.
3. Gladiator II
Paramount Pictures | Week 2
Weekend 3-Day Range: $20M – $30M
Weekend 5-Day Range: $30M – $50M
Pros
- Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II launched to an impressive $55M this weekend, then ticked an additional $5.5M on Monday to bring the current domestic cume to $60.6M. Expect the Paramount release to continue reaping the benefits of being male-oriented R-rated counter-programming, piling on another potential $60M to its coffers. The Denzel-forward marketing clearly worked in its favor, giving Mr. Washington his best domestic opening ever, as well as Scott’s second best after Hannibal. Gladiator II will not have any direct competitors to its primary male demographic until Kraven the Hunter tries to give Sony another viable Marvel brand on December 13.
Cons
- That “B” CinemaScore means folks dig the sequel, but it’s not a revelation the way the original was. It’s also coming after over two decades of sword-and-sandal copycats on both the silver screen (Troy, 300) and television (Spartacus), so that genre revival novelty is absent. Clearly, Russell Crowe’s absence was a non-issue, but can Washington and Paul Mescal bring this bad boy over the $500M WW benchmark? With little competition over the next few weeks, this movie can prove its mettle… but is the want-to-see factor still there after that initial frame? The original only dropped -29% in its second frame in May of 2000, though the sequel’s demand may be tested with the current competition for screens and Premium Format showtimes.
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