Weekend Preview: RED ONE Expected to Sleigh to the Top of the Box Office

The Boxoffice Podium

Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | November 15 – 17, 2024

Week 46 | November 15 – 17, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 46, 2024: $50M — $70M

1. Red One
Amazon/MGM | NEW
Weekend Range: $20M – $30M
Showtime Market Share: 22%

Pros

• Last weekend, studios eschewed the idea of putting any splashy new product into the market. However, all that changes this week with the arrival of Amazon/MGM’s megabudget fantasy holiday comedy Red One, starring Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans. The wild blend of action/VFX with Santa Claus mythology also has Johnson reuniting with director Jake Kasdan, who helmed the last two Jumanji pictures, and screenwriter Chris Morgan (a.k.a. the architect of the Fast franchise). It got an early launch overseas last weekend on 25,195 screens in 75 international markets for a current cume of $27.8M, and a similar number might be a best-case scenario for the North American debut. That may not be what the studio needs, but it’s good enough for exhibitors hankering for an appetizer before the main course of the coming weeks (Wicked, Gladiator II, Moana 2). There’s a good chance Red One could fall in the bottom half of our range, but there’s still potential to draw curious audiences by the sheer scale of the film, the cast, and a lack of competition.

Cons

• While Dwayne Johnson may have once called himself “franchise Viagra,” his track record with non-sequels has been spotty. In the last decade, he had original hits like San Andreas, Central Intelligence, and Rampage. Still, that track record diminished with only the modest success of original actioner Skyscraper and branded misses like Baywatch and Black Adam. In a way, Red One harkens back to the 1996 Christmas comedy Jingle All the Way, whose financial disappointment signaled the beginning of the end for Arnold Schwarzenegger as a box office goliath.

2. Venom: The Last Dance
Sony Pictures | Week 4
Weekend Range: $7M – $10M
Showtime Market Share: 10%

Pros

• After a fantastic -49% in frame two, we expected another franchise-best hold last weekend, and Venom: The Last Dance delivered, raking in $15.9M for a -39% drop. That bests the third frame of both 2018’s Venom (-48%) and 2021’s Let There Be Carnage (-48%), and this new sequel should post another solid frame this time, even with Amazon wheeling out the big guns. Internationally, Last Dance assimilated $33M last weekend to drive the global haul to its current $397.9M. The $400M milestone is in sight, as is the title of Sony’s biggest worldwide earner of 2024 after Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($400.5M).

Cons

• Even though it’s holding better than its predecessors domestically, Venom: The Last Dance is still pacing behind them, considering its current $118.5M cume. At this point, Venom had $171M, while Let There Be Carnage tallied $168M. That second film topped out at $501.5M globally, and with Last Dance now at $400M, it will be interesting to see if this film can match its previous entry by the end of its worldwide theatrical life. Given the many Sony releases’ long runs this year, it may happen, but it is almost as likely to fall short.

3. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever
Lionsgate | Week 2
Weekend Range: $5M – $8M
Showtime Market Share: 9%

Pros

• When the dust settled after the Monday actuals came in, A24’s Heretic ($11M) ultimately nabbed the #2 spot from The Best Christmas Pageant Ever ($10.7M). Much of last weekend’s heavy lifting for Lionsgate’s faith-based family film came from advanced screenings earlier in the week, which will not factor in this frame. That said, this is a word-of-mouth audience. Pageant boasts an “A” CinemaScore and 89%/98% critical/audience score from Rotten Tomatoes and 4 1/2 stars with general audiences via PostTrak. Heretic isn’t seeing that CinemaScore, with a poor “C-,” so we expect Pageant to post a stronger-than-expected hold to finish at #3.

Cons

• Let’s face it: The Best Christmas Pageant Ever is stuck between The Rock and a hard place. While this film may present as more family values-friendly, Red One has the kind of four quadrant appeal that’s hard to win against, with stars and spectacle to beat the band. When choosing a Christmas-themed film this weekend ticket buyers are likely to prioritize one (the red one) over the other, especially with the Amazon marketing machine at work. That said, outlook is slim that either film will still be on multiplex screens by the time you’re opening your presents from Santa in December.