The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | October 4 – 6, 2024
Week 40 | October 4 – 6, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 40, 2024: $80M — $110M
1. Joker: Folie à Deux
Warner Bros. | NEW
Weekend Range: $50M – $60M
Showtime Marketshare: 26%
Pros
- Director Todd Phillips once again ventures into the grimy/economically-troubled Gotham City inhabited by Arthur Fleck (Joaquin Phoenix), the psychotic anti-hero of 2019’s smash hit Joker. This time, he has a spring in his step and a song in his heart thanks to his new paramour, Harley Quinn, played by global superstar/Oscar-winning songwriter Lady Gaga. Following up a massive hit and a Best Actor Oscar win for star Joaquin Phoenix, this movie seems poised to generate a lot of debate among critics and DC Comics fans, which may help its chances at bringing back everyone who found the first movie a fresh, adult-oriented take on the Batman mythos. The success of 2022’s similarly grim The Batman showed audiences are still interested in grounded takes on comic book fodder, even (or perhaps especially) when they are not connected to an intricately connected universe.
- Even though it brings the same level of R-rated violence the first Joker delivered, Folie à Deux is a jukebox musical with an accompanying Lady Gaga album titled Harlequin to help drive promotion. Although there have been comic book-based musicals before (Dick Tracy, Scott Pilgrim vs the World, Howard the Duck), the idea of introducing a sequel as a musical is a novelty for the genre. That boldness of vision may bring in an entirely fresh audience, leaning into the pop star appeal of Lady Gaga.
- This title won’t struggle for awareness, following up the blockbuster success of its 2019 predecessor, which included a Best Actor Academy Award for lead man Joaquin Phoenix. Having seen R-rated superhero fare reach new heights with Disney’s Deadpool & Wolverine earlier this summer, all the ingredients are in place for Joker: Folie a Deux to connect with its audience.
Cons
- Since publishing our first Long Range Forecast for the Joker sequel in early September (north of $100M), our expectations on this one have been cut by nearly half. Here was a movie that seemingly had everything going for it: tracking and awareness through the roof, coming off Deadpool & Wolverine‘s record opening weekend for an R-rated comic book movie, and the October box office having a clear lane for this to hit when it opens in 4,100 theaters. Our own tracking started pointing downard when the pre-sales period began—and failed to yield any momentum for the title. Sales never picked up—despite high awareness figures and trailer views—spiraling our own forecasts in recent weeks. The reactions to the film from the Venice Film Festival bow were mixed, and reviews this week haven’t helped the film at all. While some critics have embraced it, the current Rotten Tomatoes aggregate is 58% rotten (the first had 69% fresh). Adding the musical element may also be a big turnoff for the male fanboy demo, who will have their thirst for a more traditional superhero movie quenched by Venom: The Last Dance in just a few short weeks, giving Joker a limited timeframe to run wild.
2. The Wild Robot
Universal Pictures/Dreamworks | Week 2
Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
Showtime Marketshare: 16%
Pros
- We expect the weekend for The Wild Robot might finish on the lower-half of the range, but considering a slow debut and no direct competition from Joker (along with incredibly positive word-of-month), this one can overperform and hit the high-teens or even $20M in its sophomore frame. Two weeks removed from the under-performing Transformers One gives it even less competition to build on the buzz from opening weekend, where it did well but clearly left plenty of audience untapped for first or even second viewings. Also don’t forget: a majority of ticket-buyers for this film were over age 25 (58%) last frame, which means adults turned off by the depressing Joker sequel may go for Wild Robot instead. To put it another way, Wild Robot is in no danger of having its core audience siphoned off by Joker, but Joker might be vulnerable to this Dreamworks hit. Having no humans in the story (and therefore no child characters) made the optics for this one more enticing for grown-ups while still being kid-friendly due to the subject matter.
Cons
- That $35M debut, while strong for a September opening, is nothing compared to what Dreamworks movies usually debut to. This one will have to leg it out gradually ala Migration in order to be considered a hit stateside, unlike established franchises from the animation studio, like Kung Fu Panda 4, which debuted at $57.9M during the March doldrums and eventually garnered $193.5M domestic and $548M worldwide.
3. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Warner Bros. | Week 5
Weekend Range: $8M – $12M
Showtime Marketshare: 11%
Pros
- The Beetlejuice sequel has been holding fantastically, crossing over to become director Tim Burton’s #2 all-time domestic earner ($252.8M domestic) under Alice in Wonderland ($334.1M) as well as his #4 movie globally ($376.6M) under Batman ($411.3M). Even with mediocre foreign returns Beetlejuice Beetlejuice has a strong chance of soon overtaking Batman to become his #3 movie globally, but no hope of conquering Alice stateside or abroad. With earning drops getting smaller with each successive weekend (-54%, -49%, -37%) our prediction panel expects another solid frame from this title.
Cons
- Even though the Halloween season is about to gear up, Warner Bros already announced that the Beetlejuice sequel will be available to rent or own next week on October 8, even though it will likely still be the #3 movie in America. Not only is this likely to decrease the overall take of the film box office-wise, this decision may even ding its earnings for this coming weekend as previous holdout ticket buyers decide to simply wait a few days for it to pop up on streaming or eventually 4K Blu-ray on November 19. Warners maintained a similarly stubborn 45-day window for Dune: Part Two and Godzilla x Kong earlier this year while both were still in the Top 5 theatricals.
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