This Christmas weekend promises to be a barn burner, as we expect the Top 10 on the 3-Day Range to finish between $120 – $170M. That would make it the biggest 3-Day Christmas frame of the post-pandemic era against December 2021, when Spider-Man: No Way Home drove the overall total to $143.8M. For the last two years, this frame has topped out at $94M. This week, theaters will have Sonic 3 and Mufasa at the top, with two wide-release newcomers and one mighty holdover duking it out for the #3 slot.
The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | December 25 – 29, 2024
Week 52 | December 25 – 29, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 52, 2024: $120M — $170M
1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Paramount Pictures | Week 2
3-Day Weekend Range: $35M – $45M
5-Day Weekend Range: $55M – $65M
Showtime Market Share: 21%
Pros
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is expected to lead the Christmas weekend with a 3-Day as high as $45M and a 5-Day range of $55M – $65M. While neither Sonic nor Mufasa are posting major league numbers, combined, they have combined to become the equivalent of one marquee studio release from exhibition’s perspective. As far as second frames go, the first Sonic had a -55% drop ($26.1M) while Sonic the Hedgehog 2 had a -59% drop ($29.3M), both of which the third film should easily lap.
Cons
If Sonic can match it’s sluggish opening with an equal-or-better second frame 5-Day take that will be a golden scenario for Paramount and theaters. Anything lower than our lowest-end predictions will likely be perceived as an underperformance, ultimately leading to little growth for what has emerged as a promising new franchise for Paramount. The studio put a lot of muscle into this movie, laying the runway with its Knuckles streaming series and giving it the prime Christmas tentpole placement, so there’s a lot riding on those sneakers.
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 2
3-Day Weekend Range: $25M – $30M
5-Day Weekend Range: $40M – $50M
Showtime Market Share: 18%
Pros
There’s no tiptoeing around the low opening numbers for Disney’s big, expensive prequel Mufasa, especially compared to how well the 2019 remake did. However, this title has three advantages coming into the weekend:
- The female audience, which showed up in a major way last frame with 54% of ticketbuyers (opposite of Sonic).
- Solid audience scores with 88% RT audience rating, “A-” CinemaScore, and PostTrak 5/5 for parents and 4.5/5 with kids.
- The Lion King brand which now encompasses film, TV, and Broadway.
The hope here is that the family audience, which stayed away opening weekend, will now show up to equal or best the first frame’s numbers. A good sign is that Monday figures are already much closer between Sonic and Mufasa, with the former estimated at $9M and the latter at $7M.
Cons
Although we’re giving Mufasa the benefit of the doubt, it could wind up being neck and neck between the lions and the vampires. On the plus side Mufasa has more showtimes since its a family film, while Nosferatu has a running time over two hours. Less stellar was last weekend’s Mufasa underperformance, coming in well below forecast with $35.4M (an over 80% drop from the 2019 Lion King‘s $192M bow). Robust pre-release awareness could give Nosferatu a late boost to win the weekend at #2. The fate of the lion pack will ultimately be decided if holiday family audiences get funnelled into Wicked and Sonic again, and if the adult horror crowd shows up in force for the R-rated counter-programming of Nosferatu.
The Battle for Third Place
3. Nosferatu
Focus Features | NEW
3-Day Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
5-Day Weekend Range: $25M – $30M
Showtime Market Share: 10%
Pros
We expect director Robert Eggers’ bloody-but-artful remake of Nosferatu to take third place even amidst heavy competition. The horror crowd should respond with a frontloaded opening that will be best reflected in the 5-day haul, including big numbers for opening day. This will be a record opening weekend for Eggers, with the 5-Day frame finishing somewhere between the entire domestic run of The Witch ($25M) and The Northman ($35m) should it arrive on the upper end of our forecast. Lily-Rose Depp is also delivering a potentially awards-caliber performance, while the gorgeous production will no doubt earn technical nods to keep the title alive through awards season.
Cons
Although reviews are quite positive at 88% on RT, the new Nosferatu is—at its core—simply a very handsome retelling of a story we’ve been given many many times before. The original F.W. Murnau silent classic from 1922 was, in itself, a kind of “mockbuster” of Bram Stoker’s popular novel Dracula (which gets a proper adaptation credit alongside Murnau in Eggers’ movie). Myriad versions of the tale have flourished over the last century, including Universal’s starring Bela Lugosi, Hammer’s with Christopher Lee, and Francis Coppola’s 1992 blockbuster Bram Stoker’s Dracula… not to mention Werner Herzog’s own Nosferatu remake in 1979. Focus parent company Universal has tried and failed to sell a compelling take on Dracula in recent years, including 2014’s action-oriented Dracula Untold ($55.9M domestic) along with two 2023 entries: Renfield ($17.2M) and The Last Voyage of the Demeter ($13.6M). The question remains if Eggers’ carefully curated vision is enough to generate interest beyond opening weekend.
4. A Complete Unknown
Searchlight Pictures | NEW
3-Day Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
5-Day Weekend Range: $25M – $35M
Showtime Market Share: 8%
Pros
Dune star Timothée Chalamet is tuning up for some Oscar love, headlining the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown from co-writer/director James Mangold, whose 2005 Johnny Cash biopic Walk the Line scored a $22.3M opening/$119.5M domestic cume plus five Oscar nods including a win for Reese Witherspoon. That genuine awards potential suggests this movie will enjoy a long, lengthy theatrical run. Nosferatu‘s horror crowd looks to have the upper hand on opening weekend, but Chalamet will draw younger audiences early and bring in older audiences in later weeks. By the end of its domestic run, we expect A Complete Unknown to ultimately finish ahead of Nosferatu.
Cons
Mangold is coming off the major financial whiff of the last Indiana Jones movie, returning to the biopic realm he’s excelled at prior with Walk the Line and Ford v Ferrari. Reviews are solid but not through-the-roof with 78% on Rotten Tomatoes. Todd Haynes’ unconventional 2007 Dylan pic I’m Not There, which had six different actors (including Cate Blanchett) playing the singer, fizzled out at $4M domestic and $12.3M global—although it did nab Blanchett an Oscar nod. The Coen Bros.’ 2013 Dylan-adjacent folk singer movie Inside Llewyn Davis also failed to gain momentum with $13.2M domestic. The point being: Bob Dylan is a far more divisive musical figure than the late Johnny Cash (alongside the stale appeal of West Village folk music), even with heartthrob Chalamet’s built-in female audience.
5. Wicked
Universal Pictures | Week 6
3-Day Weekend Range: $15M – $20M
5-Day Weekend Range: $25M – $35M
Showtime Market Share: 8%
Pros
Wicked will simply not stop performing, outpacing Moana 2 by coming in at #3 last frame with $14.1M and a $384.5M domestic cume. The December 25 launch of Wicked in-theater sing-along screenings should boost sales on Christmas weekend, with no more concern about movie manners while belting out your favorite show tunes from your seat. At $572.5M globally, it’s a lock to pass the $600M mark worldwide along with $400M domestic, both before Sunday.
Cons
Despite Wicked‘s bordering-on-magical hold, we think the two new releases have just enough juice to barely outperform it this weekend. However, we can easily see a scenario where any of these titles come out on top. It’s also possible for Moana 2 to surge ahead again over the holiday, but the witches have the momentum right now given the animated islanders have been having bigger percentage drops over the ensuing weeks.
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