The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | November 1 – 3, 2024
Week 44 | November 1 – 3, 2024
Top 10 3-Day Range | Weekend 44, 2024: $35M — $45M
1. Venom: The Last Dance
Sony Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $17M – $23M
Pros
- Venom: The Last Dance had a slow start with a $51M weekend, followed by a $3M Monday and a $4.6M Tuesday for a current cume of $58.7M. That’s still better than DC’s Joker: Folie à Deux, which has crawled on hands and knees to $57.9M after more than four weeks, and equivalent to some of the lower-grossing (but still successful) MCU movies like the first Ant-Man. The first Venom had a -56% drop during its second frame ($35M) before a lifetime $213.5M cume, while 2021’s Let There Be Carnage dropped -65% in week 2 ($31.7M) before equaling the first’s $213.5M. The third Venom will be hard-pressed to reach those stateside numbers but will make up for that overseas where business is robust. This will not be a write-off for Sony, but it does not bode well for future Marvel movies solely under their umbrella à la December 13th’s Kraven the Hunter.
Cons
- There’s no tap-dancing around it: this was not a stellar opening for a third Venom. Even if the movie was a bust in terms of quality (the jury’s out as these movies are graded on a steep curve), following up two box office bullseyes should have at least meant it was front-loaded for big business. Even factoring in the $175M global opening numbers, that’s still a -15% downtick from the $205M global debut the first movie enjoyed in 2018…and without the domestic numbers a franchise needs to stay viable in the marketplace. In its second frame Venom: The Last Dance is looking at a drop well over -50%, but a “B-” CinemaScore means it is not polling as well as its predecessors which both got “B+” scores. That “B-” is in line with 2019’s X-Men franchise-killer Dark Phoenix, which had a -72% drop in its second frame. With an anemic opening, Venom needs to hope it doesn’t come to that or it’s goose will be cooked well before Thanksgiving.
2. Here
Sony Pictures | NEW
Weekend Range: $3M – $7M
Pros
- Star Tom Hanks re-teams with director Robert Zemeckis for a fifth time alongside Forrest Gump co-star Robin Wright in a fascinating experimental narrative which takes place from the same vantage point, across many years in one house. That ticks a lot of boxes for audience interest, and the warm family ambiance of the trailers could make it perfect fodder for the holidays. Hanks/Zemeckis’ first three outings (Gump, Cast Away, The Polar Express) were all major moneymakers. They are about as dependable a combo as Jimmy Stewart and Frank Capra were. As a movie star, Hanks still has enough juice/pedigree to successfully sell a straight drama for grownups, as with A Man Called Otto, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, or The Post.
Cons
- The Hanks/Zemeckis team is not infallible, as proven by Disney sending their poorly-reviewed live-action Pinocchio straight to streaming, when that should have been a slam dunk. Sadly, Here looks to be another critical misfire with a current 35% on Rotten Tomatoes that will ultimately hurt the financial outlook. It’s already a tough sell in this market, with little youth appeal, and now seemingly little Oscar chances beyond the technical categories. At best, this will perform on-par with last weekend’s adult-targeted Conclave ($6.6M), even though Here is a much pricier VFX-driven film with big stars and Benjamin Button-style aging/de-aging technology. Unfortunately, none of those elements seem to move the needle much these days.
- After decades of churning out hit after hit (Back to the Future, Roger Rabbit, Flight), Zemeckis himself has been on a losing streak for the ages. Both The Walk and Welcome to Marwen were DOA with around $10M in box office each, while the expensive Brad Pitt-led WWII thriller Allied sputtered with $40M. Both The Witches and Pinocchio were critical misfires that circumvented theaters. Here looks like it won’t break the downward pattern, and may actually add fuel to the fire that Zemeckis no longer has his finger on the pulse of what audiences want. That’s a problem given that his pictures tend to carry large price tags.
3. Smile 2
Paramount Pictures | Week 3
Weekend Range: $3M – $5M
Pros
- This sequel stayed strong with a $9.5M second frame for a -59% drop, which is a reasonably good hold for a horror sequel. Smile 2 is well on the road to profitability with a $41.7M domestic cume, and will get one last spooky season shot in the arm this week and weekend. It’s main competition, Terrifier 3, stalled out at #6 this weekend with $4.7M (current $45M cume) and is likely on its way to a little over $50M. Smile 2 is also enjoying much better foreign numbers ($42.9M) than Art the Clown ($6M), and will end its global run over the $100M mark.
Cons
- That second weekend hold was nowhere near the staying power of the first movie though, which only had a -18% drop for an $18.5M week 2. Warm weather on the east coast meant Halloween activities possibly took precedence over a cinema trip. This is likely the last frame for Smile 2 to make real bank as A24’s very well-reviewed Heretic takes over the horror conversation in the following frame.
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